Sudan's government urgently needs support from the West if it is to progress to a truly democratic country, with its people still suffering from daily deprivations
Credit: Mazen Mahdi/ AFP
Sudan’s prime minister, Abdalla Hamdok, is so well-liked in Khartoum that his name has become synonymous with good. When things are going well, they are said to be "Hamdoki", and "thank you Hamdok" has become a popular hashtag.
But there is less to be thankful for in Sudan’s capital these days. Mr Hamdok is a popular leader in an unenviable role.
He leads a bankrupt country facing a billion-dollar bill for a peace agreement aimed at ending decades of civil war. People’s hopes have been buoyed by recent success in toppling a dictator but, with the economy in freefall, life is getting tougher by the day.
"We hope our friends come to our rescue," Mr Hamdok told the Daily Telegraph from his office in Khartoum.
If Sudan is to avoid further bloodshed, military coups, widespread unrest and that most ignominious title of "failed state", significant financial aid is urgently needed, he said.
"To say we inherited a relatively broken economy is a gross underestimation," he added. "We inherited a collapsed economy."
In June, tens of thousands of Sudanese took to the streets calling for reforms and demanding justice for those killed in anti-government demonstrations that ousted president Omar al-Bashir last year
Credit: AFP
Following a nationwide protest movement that forced the military overthrow of long-time dictator Omar Al Bashir last April, sustained public mobilisation enabled civilians to secure a power-sharing agreement with the military.
After three decades working for the United Nations and development organisations across Africa, Mr Hamdok, like many other expatriate Sudanese, returned home.
His lack of self-interest and technocratic competence have won him widespread support, which will be critical if he is to maintain the civilian role in a hybrid government with officers who, critics say, see themselves as Sudan’s rightful leaders.
But Mr Hamdok’s supporters are struggling. "We expected things would get better – that’s why we supported the protests – but now it’s worse, much worse," said Reemas Hussein, a 22-year-old student in Khartoum.
Nowadays, her friends talk of "taking a boat" – that is, migrating overseas. "Or they want to join the RSF [Rapid Support Forces] and go to fight Yemen," she said.
The Rapid Support Forces are a Sudanese paramilitary force fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen on behalf of the Yemeni government, a deployment that can earn Sudanese fighters a lifetime’s wages in a matter of months.
General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo has pledged $1bn of his fortune to support the government
Credit: Samir Bol/Reuters
The RSF grew out of Janjaweed militias, which played a dominant role in the Darfur conflict in which millions were displaced and over 300,000 killed. Ostensibly part of the Sudanese military, the RSF remains under the control of General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemeti as he is commonly known.
Mr Dagalo is one of Sudan’s most powerful men, with vast wealth earned from his troops fighting abroad and interests in gold mining. He is also currently a crucial ally to Mr Hamdok, and last April pledged over $1 billion (£778 million) to support the government.
Despite this support, the economy has continued to nosedive. The currency has shed 40 per cent of its value in the past month, and is now trading at 240 pounds to the dollar on the parallel market. Inflation is second only to Venezuela, reaching 167 per cent in August.
Many stores in Khartoum have closed due to a scarcity of shoppers and the difficulty of keeping prices current, while queues for bread and fuel stretch the length of potholed streets.
In January, local media reported that the finance minister had forecast a deficit of $3.3 billion (£2.6 billion). That was before the coronavirus pandemic slashed government revenue by 40 per cent.
A lockdown to contain the virus has particularly hurt the many Sudanese who work in the informal sector. Over 20 per cent of Sudan’s population now needs food aid, the highest amount ever, according to the UN. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast that the Sudanese economy will shrink eight per cent in 2020.
A young Sudanese woman sits in front of her shelter after flooding destroyed her crops, another calamity threatening food security on top of a historic locust outbreak and the coronavirus pandemic
Credit: Tetiana Gaviuk
Most recently the Turkish Red Crescent distributed food parcels in the Al-Kalakla region in Khartoum, Sudan
Credit: Anadolu Agency
After being sworn in last August, Mr Hamdok called for $10 billion (£7.7 billion) in international aid to support a three-year transition to elections. Donors at an aid conference in Berlin in June pledged $1.8 billion (£1.4 billion), but that has not all been released.
"It is not enough," Mr Hamdok said. "It is actually yet to materialise in actual support."
With the country in arrears on nearly $60 billion (£46.5 billion) of debt, securing more loans will be a challenge, and the government is implementing a reform programme designed to enable Sudan to receive IMF assistance.
A priority is reducing subsidies, which in 2019 cost around $4.2 billion (£3.3 billion) or close to 40 per cent of the budget. Introduced by Mr Bashir to buy the acquiescence of the population, and paid for with largesse from South Sudan’s oil wealth, subsidies are no longer affordable since the south seceded in 2011.
Removing subsidies on fuel and gas while leaving other subsidies, including on wheat and medicine, could save $2 billion (£1.6 billion), Mr Hamdok said. Even this limited reform is contentious with a struggling population, and the government is introducing a cash transfer programme to cushion the impact on the poorest households.
But a bigger obstacle to foreign support and investment is Sudan’s blacklisting by the US State Department. "If we do not get de-listed from the state sponsor of terrorism, all these reforms will not bear fruit," said Mr Hamdok.
A relic of Mr Bashir’s support for Islamists during the 1990s, the transitional government has done all it can in pursuit of de-listing, including agreeing to compensate the families of victims of the 1998 al-Qaeda bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
But de-listing is now embroiled in US domestic politics, with some victims of the 9/11 attacks also demanding compensation from Sudan. The issue now risks going unresolved until after the US presidential elections in November.
Sudan is also seeking $3 billion in aid in return for normalisation of relations with Israel, according to a report by Axios, despite Mr Hamdok previously saying that establishing diplomatic ties with the Jewish state was beyond the mandate of his transitional government.
Sudan is reported to be seeking $3bn in aid in return for normalisation of relations with Israel
Credit: Yoav Lemmer/AFP
Meanwhile, Sudan’s bills continue to mount. Next month, Mr Hamdok’s government will sign a peace agreement with rebels from Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile that will cost billions to implement.
"Peace itself has a huge price to pay," said Mr Hamdok. "In Darfur alone, we estimate the financial cost is close to a $1 billion."
The deal envisages the creation of new regional governments, the demobilisation and reintegration of thousands of rebel fighters, the return of refugees and the rebuilding of war-ravaged regions.
"Sudan on its own will not be able to foot that bill. We will be relying on the goodwill of our friends and partners," said Mr Hamdok.
Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok has called on the international community to support Sudan's democratic transition
After long being encouraged to pursue democracy, the Sudanese – and Mr Hamdok – are wondering about the lack of international aid. "The West is paying lip service to the democratic transition when what is needed is economic support," said Sudanese economist Sidgi Kaballo.
But some Sudanese also question the effectiveness of the government, criticising it for disorganisation in the face of mounting challenges.
"In terms of bread and butter issues, they’re having serious trouble accomplishing anything," said Magdi El Gizouli, a Sudanese academic and fellow at the Rift Valley Institute. "They’re very good on sloganeering, but I’m not sure sloganeering is the answer to these kinds of crises."
But the cost of not coming to Sudan’s support at its hour of need could be extremely high, Mr Hamdok said. If Sudan is allowed to become a failed state, conflicts in nearby Yemen and Libya could pale by comparison.
His acting foreign minister agreed, pointing out that Sudan’s security could affect a region in which 500 million people – or nearly half the population of Africa – live. "If a Sudanese sneezes, people are going to cough around the region," said Omer Gamaruddeen Ismail.
Conversely, supporting Sudan’s transition will have a positive effect on the entire region, Mr Hamdok said. He added: "If we get it right, it will have a huge impact."
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