A pledge to hit 500,000 coronavirus tests a day in the UK by the end of next month could be missed as vital chemicals and analysing machines needed to hit the target are “a few weeks” behind schedule, the body representing their manufacturers has said.
Boris Johnson has insisted the UK will hit the target by the end of October, up from about 260,000 capacity now, despite a number of problems including people told to travel hundreds of miles and delays in getting results back.
But the drive to boost capacity among testing providers to deliver the pledge is in doubt because manufacturers cannot make enough chemical reagents and analysers.
The British In Vitro Diagnostics Association (Bivda) told the Guardian there would be “a lag” between the government target and the industry’s ability to scale up production and supply.
Helen Dent, its chief operating officer, said: “If there was a steady order based on forecast numbers of tests that people are expecting, there would be a steady supply. But the manufacturing times for both reagents and analysers for the increased number of tests that are planned have a bit of a lag.
“The lag is about a few weeks. It’s a supply chain lag in that everything is based on forecasts. So when there’s a forecast for a certain number of tests, the supply chain adjusts to that. And when the forecast is changed, the supply chain adjusts to that. The lag develops when there’s a new forecast, but then it [supply] catches up. But they have been ordered and they will arrive,” she added.
Timeline What the UK government said on Covid testing
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1 September 2020
Boris Johnson
“Not only are we getting the pandemic under control, with deaths down and hospital admissions way, way down, but we will continue to tackle it, with local lockdowns and with our superlative test-and-trace system.”
9 September 2020
Boris Johnson
“NHS Test and Trace is doing a heroic job, and today most people get an in-person test result within 24 hours, and the median journey is under 10 miles if someone has to take a journey to get one … [To Keir Starmer] We make the tough calls – all he does is sit on the sidelines and carp.”
9 September 2020
Boris Johnson
[On the ‘moonshot’ proposal for mass, near-instant testing:] “We are hopeful this approach will be widespread by the spring and, if everything comes together, it may be possible even for challenging sectors like theatres to have life much closer to normal before Christmas.”
16 September 2020
Boris Johnson
“We don’t have enough testing capacity now because, in an ideal world, I would like to test absolutely everybody that wants a test immediately … Yes, there’s a long way to go, and we will work night and day to ensure that we get there.”
17 September 2020
Matt Hancock
“Of course there is a challenge in testing … We have sent tests to all schools to make sure that they have tests available. But of course I also recognise the challenges in getting hold of tests … Tests are available, even though it is a challenge to get hold of them.”
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Asked what the effect of a lag could be, Dent said the current situation – where demand for tests is outstripping supply up to fourfold – was an example.
Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said: “Testing has become a shambles and it now looks like Boris Johnson’s promise of 500,000 test a day by October won’t be met.”
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