First Thing election special: Far too close for comfort

Good morning.

If you were hoping for a presidential election that defied the predictions to deliver a swift and decisive result, prepare to be disappointed. At least one thing is clear from the results so far: even if Joe Biden does eke out a win in the coming hours or days – or weeks – it will be very far from the landslide repudiation of Donald Trump that his critics and opponents had hoped for.

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Trump throws baseless doubt on vote and falsely claims victory – video

The president has already taken to the White House podium to declare himself the victor – falsely – while spreading baseless claims of voter fraud before many of the votes are even tallied. But, speaking in the small hours in his home state of Delaware, Biden insisted: “I believe we are on track to win this election.”

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Fox News doubles down on calling Arizona for Biden – video

Despite disappointment in Florida and Texas, where Latino voters showed only lukewarm enthusiasm for the former vice-president, the Biden campaign’s confidence was buoyed by a win in Arizona, a state that before now had voted for a Democratic president only once since the 1940s. But to reach 270 electoral college votes, Biden still needs at least two more states from the rust belt trio that lost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election – Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania – and an unexpectedly competitive Georgia.

Election night is already turning into election week

The widespread warnings of disruption and even violence at the polls turned out to be unfounded, as voting proceeding smoothly across the US on Tuesday. But with millions of votes still to be counted – and the president attempting to call their validity into question – Americans still face a democratic endurance test.

Lawrence Douglas says the delayed results are evidence that the system is working properly. And if, as many fear, the election does end up in a court battle over Pennsylvania, writes Richard Wolffe, then at least Biden is better prepared than Al Gore:

For the next few days, the 2020 election might feel like it’s 2000 all over again. But it’s not. There may well be multiple legal disputes, as Donald Trump has suggested. However, it is hard to stop counting ballots that have yet to be counted. Recounts are entirely different from first counts, even when the US supreme court is tilted heavily against Democrats.

Looks like the Senate is staying red, after all …

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Mitch McConnell declares ‘this is no time to tear down statues’ in victory speech – video

Some Republicans were braced for a “bloodbath” in the senate, but the GOP appears to have defied the polls and retained its majority in the upper chamber of Congress – meaning that even if Biden wins the White House, he will struggle to get his legislative agenda past Mitch McConnell.

Trump loyalists Lindsey Graham and Joni Ernst clung on despite strong Democratic challenges in South Carolina and Iowa respectively, as did Susan Collins in Maine and Steve Daines in Montana. Mark Kelly, the former astronaut and husband of former congresswoman Gabby Giffords, chalked up a crucial Democratic win in Arizona. But in Alabama, Doug Jones lost the seat he won in a 2017 special election to his GOP rival, Tommy Tuberville.

… while the House is turning a little less blue

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Nancy Pelosi: ‘We’re able to say that we have held the House’ – video

Meanwhile, the Democrats have comfortably retained control of the House of Representatives, but with their majority diluted by a series of upsets in states including Florida and North Carolina – and by their failure to pick-up longshot seats in the likes of Texas and Arkansas, as Victoria Bekiempis and Maanvi Singh report.

• AOC and the Squad all won their re-election races handily. Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib each secured well over 60% of the vote in their districts of New York, Minnesota and Michigan respectively, while Ayanna Pressley romped home with 87.5% in the Massachusetts seventh.

• A QAnon supporter is going to Washington. Republican Marjorie Taylor, who has expressed support for the bizarre far-right conspiracy theory, was declared the winner in Georgia’s 14th congressional district.

In other election news…

• Mississippi will remove the confederate symbol from its state flag and replace it with a magnolia, the state flower, after voters approved a ballot initiative to make the change.

• Oregon will be the first US state to decriminalise possession of hard drugs, while voters in Arizona, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota all passed state ballot measures to legalise the recreational use of cannabis.

• Uber and Lyft won a victory over labor activists in California, where voters passed a ballot measure allowing them to continue classifying drivers as contractors, not employees.

Stat of the day

Is the election really the biggest story of the day? On Tuesday, the US also hit a three-month high in Covid-19 hospitalisations, with 50,176 coronavirus patients now being treated nationally.

Don’t miss this

Perhaps the most consequential longterm implications of this election are for the global climate. On Wednesday, the US formally withdraws from the Paris agreement, making it the only country in the world to exit the international climate deal. Biden has promised to rejoin immediately if he wins, but a second Trump term would likely lead to further expansion of fossil fuels, dismantling of environmental protections and rejection of climate science. Emily Holden reports.

Last Thing: reasons to be hopeful

Whatever the result of the election, these writers and activists say there are still positive signs to be found at this messy and dispiriting moment in American history. Among them is Cori Bush, a nurse and community activist, who just won her first congressional race in Missouri:

History shows that sustained mobilization is the only way to create social change. I get my strength from the millions of my sisters and brothers, voting today, organizing tomorrow. We’re not just fighting for ourselves, and we’re not fighting alone. We’re fighting for our friends, our neighbors, our loved ones – and for everyone we don’t know. And our movement is bringing their voices to Congress. Regardless of what the result is this week.

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