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Georgia 2020 election results: why Democrats are optimistic

Family and supporters hold runoff signs as Democratic US Senate candidate Rev. Raphael Warnock speaks during an Election Night event

Credit: Jessica McGowan/POOL/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

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Donald Trump’s margin in Georgia has fallen from 68,000 to less than 3,500.

Generally a Republican state, it has had 98 per cent of ballots already counted, so Mr Trump and Joe Biden are headed to a photo finish.

Gabriel Sterling, an election official, said it would "take time" to process tens of thousands of remaining ballots.  Up to 8000 overseas ballots could still arrive from Service Members. 

Fulton County, the state’s largest and home to Atlanta, could tip the state. Donald Trump was leading with 49.6 per cent, while Joe Biden had 49.1 per cent of the vote, but the area is traditionally a Democratic stronghold.

Fulton County elections director Richard Barron told CNN they were "close to being done": "I think within 2,000 at this point."

Mr Barron said that factoring in provisional ballots — including the overseas and military votes — meant that the county’s overall count of unknown ballots was nearly 5,000.

Mr Biden is performing better than Hillary Clinton did in 2016, including in their more upscale suburban areas.

Early on Wednesday, Mr Trump prematurely claimed he carried Georgia — and several other states that were too early to call.

"It’s … clear that we have won Georgia. We’re up by 2.5 per cent, or 117,000 (votes) with only seven per cent (of the vote) left" to count, Mr Trump said during an early morning appearance at the White House.

Mr Biden on Wednesday spoke on the election results and told the crowd: "We’re still in the game in Georgia, although that’s not one we expected."

In Georgia, Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock have advanced to a January 5 runoff in the special election for Ms Loeffler’s Senate seat.

They’re the top two finishers in a crowded field that also included Republican Rep. Doug Collins. But no candidate was able to get the 50 per cent threshold needed in order to win outright.

Ms Loeffler, a wealthy businesswoman, was appointed last year to replace retiring Sen. Johnny Isakson. Mr Warnock is pastor of the Atlanta church where the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr preached.

Mr Warnock is trying to become Georgia’s first Black US senator.

When will we know who has won the US election?

Demographic changes

Georgia is not obvious Biden country. This is the Deep South. No Democrat has taken the state in a presidential election since Bill Clinton 28 years ago. 

Georgia joined the Confederacy when it split from the Union. It is deeply religious and deeply conservative. For decades it has been redder than red.

But now the cracks are showing. Polls had Mr Biden and Donald Trump neck-and-neck in the state. 

Early voting

A week before election day almost three million people had voted early in Georgia, closing in on 2016’s total of a little over four million. The remarkable turnout surge has Democrats optimistic.

What issues are at play?

The battle for Georgia boils down to urban versus rural. The Democrats want to rack up votes in the cities and hope that can outweigh the overwhelmingly pro-Trump countryside.

When Mr Biden delivered his speech in Warm Springs, Georgia, he likened today’s crises — a pandemic and an economic crash — to those faced by Franklin D. Roosevelt, the former US president and Democratic Party titan, who led America through the Great Depression and World War Two.

When is a result likely?

With several contests still too early to call, and the Georgia senate race heading to a January runoff, the final verdict is expected to drag on for days and counting may not finish until November 13.

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