Impeachment guide: how will Donald Trump’s second Senate trial unfold?

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Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said that on Monday the House of Representatives will send an article of impeachment against Donald Trump to the Senate – the first time in history an American president will face a second impeachment trial.

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Though Trump is no longer in office, the trial is set to go ahead in February. If convicted, Trump could be barred from ever again holding public office, dealing a terminal blow to any hopes he may have of running again in 2024.

The charge originates from the former president’s incendiary speech to an angry mob before it assaulted the US Capitol in Washington on 6 January, and will thus unfold in the one of the chambers ransacked by his supporters.

Here is what we know so far about the historic proceeding:

What happens on Monday?

Pelosi will send the article of impeachment – the charge of incitement laid out and approved by the House – to the Senate at 7pm EST. The charge will be carried by Democratic impeachment managers in a small, formal procession through National Statuary Hall, where just weeks ago rioters paraded, waving Trump flags. In the Senate, Jamie Raskin, a Democrat from Maryland and the lead impeachment manager, will read the article of impeachment on the floor of the chamber.

What happens next?

Traditionally the trial would begin almost immediately upon receipt of the impeachment article. But Senate leaders have agreed a two-week delay, allowing time for Joe Biden to install his cabinet and begin pursuing a legislative agenda.

Under the deal struck by Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, and Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, the president’s team and the House managers will have until the week of 8 February to to draft and exchange written legal briefs.

Trump’s legal team must submit an answer to the article by 2 February, the same day House managers must provide their pre-trial brief. Trump’s pre-trial brief will be due on 8 February and the House will have until 9 February for a rebuttal, allowing for the trial to begin.

What is the charge?

Trump is accused of “inciting violence against the government of the United States”, for his statements at a rally prior to his supporters launching the attack on the Capitol in which five people died. The House impeached Trump for “high crimes and misdemeanors” on 13 January, exactly one week after the siege. The final vote was 232 to 197, with 10 Republicans joining Democrats.

Will witnesses be called?

That is not yet known. In Trump’s first impeachment trial, over approaches to Ukraine for dirt on political rivals, the Republican-held Senate refused to call witnesses. Now the Senate is in Democratic hands but many in the party are hoping for a speedy trial so as not to distract from Biden’s first weeks in the White House. Some Democrats have said they do not expect to call witnesses, given that lawmakers bore witness to –and were the victims of – the attack on the Capitol.

Who runs the trial?

The chief justice of the supreme court, John Roberts, oversaw Trump’s first trial in February 2020. However, the constitution only stipulates that the chief justice must preside over the trial of a current president, leaving scholars divided over who should lead the chamber during the proceedings this time. If Roberts declined to preside, the task would likely fall to the president of the Senate: Vice-President Kamala Harris. In the event she preferred not to become involved with the proceedings, which overlaps with her first weeks in her new job, the job could fall to Patrick Leahy, a Democratic senator from Vermont and the Senate president pro tempore, a position decided by seniority.

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How long will the trial last?

That is also still not known, but it is expected to be much quicker than the last impeachment trial – perhaps a matter of days, not weeks.

What are the chances Republicans vote to convict?

A two-thirds majority of the Senate is needed to convict Trump. As with his first impeachment trial, many Republicans see that as unlikely. Only Mitt Romney dared break ranks last time and, while more are expected to do so this time, it would take 17 Republicans joining all 50 Democrats to convict. However, McConnell’s public ambivalence over his own vote has led to some speculation that if he were to signal support for conviction, he could provide cover for more defections.

If Trump is convicted what happens next?

If Trump is convicted, there will be no immediate consequences as he has already left office. However, lawmakers could hold another vote to block him from running again. A simple majority would be needed to block him from holding “any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States”, blocking a White House run in 2024.