The Tokyo 2020 Olympics could place an intolerable strain on Japanese health workers who are already exhausted from battling three waves of coronavirus infections, medical experts have warned.
Japan has avoided the catastrophic number of deaths seen in other major economies, but about half the population is still living under a state of emergency that is expected to last until the beginning of March, just weeks before preparations for the Olympics are due to begin with a nationwide torch relay.
While case numbers have fallen since the latest state of emergency was declared on 7 January, Japan reported a record 121 Covid-19 deaths on Wednesday, bringing the total to 6,678, according to the health ministry. Tokyo – by far the hardest hit region – has reported just over 105,000 cases and 1,078 deaths.
Shinobu Morita, chairwoman of the Japan Federation of Medical Workers’ Unions, said doctors and nurses could struggle to cope with multiple challenges if the Games go ahead as scheduled on 23 July.
“It’s reasonable to suppose that by then we will still be treating Covid patients, as well as people with other conditions who have struggled to receive adequate levels of care during the pandemic,” Morita, whose organisation represents more than 170,000 medical staff, said.
“The Olympics would leave doctors and nurses facing a third situation. The pandemic is far from over, and they won’t be able to rest until the number of Covid patients is zero.”
Tokyo 2020 organisers have said that 10,000 medical staff will be needed during the Games, which will be held during the hottest time of the year.
About 14,500 Olympic and Paralympic athletes from 200 countries are expected to compete in Tokyo, accompanied by tens of thousands of journalists and Games-related officials. A decision on whether to admit overseas spectators isn’t expected until the spring.
The Tokyo Medical Association, which has been asked by organisers and the Tokyo metropolitan government to secure 3,500 volunteers, has warned that its members are under too much strain to consider offering their services in late July and early August.
“No matter how I look at it, it’s impossible,” the association’s head, Satoru Arai, said. “I’m hearing doctors who initially signed up to volunteer say there is no way they can take time off to help when their hospitals are completely overwhelmed.”
While Olympic organisers recently released the first in a series of “playbooks” outlining measures they say will ensure a “safe and secure” Olympics, concern that Tokyo 2020 could trigger another wave of infections has eroded public support for the event.
In a recent poll by the Kyodo news agency, 82% of respondents said they thought the Games should be cancelled or postponed again, and just 14.5% said they should go ahead.
The global deployment of virus vaccines has raised hopes for the Games. Denmark and Israel are among several countries that have said they will vaccinate athletes before the summer, although Olympic organisers have said that vaccination is not a requirement for competing in Tokyo.
Large numbers of people in the host country are unlikely to have been vaccinated by the summer.
Japan graphic
Japan’s vaccine programme is expected to begin next week, starting with up to 20,000 frontline health workers, followed by 8 million other medical staff and, from around April, 36 million people aged 65 and over. The general population is not expected to start receiving jabs until July.
“Vaccines are a tool to protect yourself, not others,” said Koji Wada, a public health expert at the International University of Health and Welfare in Otawara who has advised the government on the pandemic. “You should not look to the vaccines as an answer to this.”
The discovery of more transmissible variants of the virus has added to concerns about safety during the Olympics. Japan has reported dozens of cases of new strains that originated in the UK, South Africa and Brazil, including among people with no history of travel to those countries.
“I do understand the athletes’ sentiments,” said Michael Head, a senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton. “But I think from … the global public health point of view, there’s nothing about the Olympics that makes any sense whatsoever right now.”
Head said that even if visiting athletes, officials and journalists are vaccinated, “there may be certain variants that have certain resistance to the vaccine. Mixing of people from so many different countries will simply accelerate the likelihood of new variants emerging”.
Morita said the epidemic had taken a huge toll on health workers since Japan reported its first Covid-19 case just over a year ago. “They are physically and mentally exhausted,” she said. “And we don’t know when the situation will reach the point where it all gets too much for them.”
Agence France-Presse added to this report
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