Major projects including Avatar 3 are likely to be delayed due to strikes
It was a bombshell as the cast of Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer prepared to take their seats at the London premiere on Thursday night. Rumors were leaking out of Los Angeles that the Hollywood actors' union SAG-AFTRA had joined their striking screenwriters in knocking down their instruments. After that, Cillian Murphy, Emily Blunt, Florence Pugh, Robert Downey Jr. and Matt Damon left the Odeon Luxe in Leicester Square. For them, the strike of the actors has just become the most real.
“They're going to write their own pickets for what we think is an imminent SAG strike,” said Christopher Nolan, presenting his biopic of Robert J. Oppenheimer, the inventor of the atomic bomb. “[They] are joining one of my guilds, the Writers Guild, in fighting for a fair wage for the working members of their union.”
The first strike of Hollywood actors in 43 years will bring the industry to a halt. Major studios have already struggled to cope with the aftermath of the writers' strike. The controversy halted production on the fifth season of Stranger Things, the second season of The Last of Us, and the fourth season of The White Lotus.
But the effect of hitting the actor will be felt much faster. Major projects like the upcoming Gladiator and Avatar sequels are likely to be delayed. In the meantime, Hollywood has to promote its big summer blockbusters without the cooperation of its stars. SAG-AFTRA rules prohibit them from advertising their films. Here's everything you need to know.
Stranger Things Season 5 was put on hold in May due to writers' strikes Credit: courtesy of Netflix Why are actors on strike?
The long answer is that the actors' union is negotiating a new contract covering minimum wages and working conditions with studios and major streaming companies that are negotiating collectively as the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). But the shorter answer is that it's all about technology.
What are the characteristics of their complaints?
One issue has to do with leftovers: the payments that actors receive when their work is used after its original performance, such as when a film is broadcast on TV or released on DVD. They also receive leftovers when their work is shown on a streaming service like Netflix or Amazon Prime. However, Sag-Aftra says streaming balances are calculated at a much lower rate. This means actors' earnings will fall as streaming becomes the dominant medium in television and film.
“Studios and streamers have made massive unilateral changes to our industry's business model while insisting that our contracts remain frozen,” said Duncan Crabtree Ireland, the union's chief negotiator.
“Their refusal to meaningfully participate in our key proposals and the fundamental disrespect shown to our members has brought us to this point. The studios and streamers have underestimated the determination of our members as they are about to discover it to the fullest.” Strike announcement. Photo: Cathy McTiernan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
One problem is that streamers refuse to share viewership data, so actors have no idea how successful the show is and therefore how much they should be paid.
“There are currently no streaming success metrics – all subscribers/views are now kept secret – and therefore no way [to factor project success into future payment and balance discussions],” actor Anson Mount tweeted after Sag-Aftra voted 83 percent to strike.
The moment was confirmed by the cast of the early Netflix hit Orange Is the New Black. The show's cast members have complained that despite its high status, they are getting “leftovers” from Netflix for as little as £15 a year.
The union is also concerned about the unregulated use of artificial intelligence to replace actors. One chilling suggestion the studios have put forward is that “minor actors” – extras, as they used to be called – can be “digitally scanned” and their performances reused without the need for permission or additional payment.
Netflix's early hit “Orange Is the New Black” By Cara Howe/Netflix
“This is the 'groundbreaking' AI proposal they made to us yesterday, they proposed that our background performers could be scanned, paid one day, and their companies should own that scan, their image, their likeness, and should be able to use it for the rest of eternity in whatever project they want, without consent or compensation,” Crabtree Ireland said.
Actors are also concerned about the growing complexity of “Deepfake” digital creation software twins. The technology is getting more and more powerful – for example, the new Indiana Jones film The Dial of Destiny convincingly recreates a young Harrison Ford. SAG wants to introduce new ground rules for how and when performer personas can be used, and says it has met with resistance from studios.
“It doesn’t look good for them when they basically say: “We refuse to promise that we will not replace you with robots,” wrote Anson Mount. “But these days, when they're loyal to Wall Street, not to the audience, that's to be expected.”
Other demands include higher wages to offset the effects of inflation and better pension plans. Obviously, salary is not an issue for megastars like Tom Cruise. SAG-AFTRA notes that its members earn less than $25,000 on average, which is less than the U.S. median wage. These are the members she fights for.
It's not nice for them when they basically say, “We refuse to promise we won't replace you with robots.” But these days, when they're loyal to Wall Street and not to the audience, that's to be expected.
— Anson Mount 🖖 (@ansonmount) July 14, 2023 Who's on strike?
SAG-AFTRA has approximately 160,000 film, television and radio members. Video game voice actors are in a different union and are not on strike.
What are the studios saying?
AMPTP said it offered higher pay and guarantees for AI and accused the union of not participating.
“We are deeply disappointed that SAG-AFTRA has decided to withdraw from negotiations,” the statement said. “This is the union's choice, not ours. In doing so, he turned down our offer of historic pay and balance increases, significantly higher pension and medical caps, audition protection, shortened series selection periods, a groundbreaking AI proposal that protects actors' digital images, and more. jpg” /> Disney CEO Bob E. Gehr intervenes in the debate. Photo: LOIC VENANCE/AFP. Photo: LOIC VENANCE/AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, Disney's Bob Iger joined the debate. Speaking to CNBC, the CEO said: “We've been talking about the disruptive forces in this business and all the challenges we're facing, the Covid recovery that's ongoing, it's not fully recovered. This is the worst time in the world to exacerbate this failure.”
Iger and his fellow studio executives have come under fire for their hefty salaries. Iger recently signed a contract extension that could see him earn up to $27 million a year through 2026; while Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings is worth an estimated $4.7 billion, a figure that union leaders have described as obscene.
“Frankly, I can’t believe how far apart we are on so many things,” said Fran Drescher, president of SAG-AFTRA and former star of the sitcom The Nanny. “How they cite poverty, that they are losing money left and right, giving away hundreds of millions of dollars to their CEOs. It's disgusting. Shame on them. They are on the wrong side of history.”
However, there is a sense that the leaders are ready to play tough. It was revealed this week that the studios have decided to wall off the striking writers until financial pressure forces them back to the negotiating table. “I think we're in for a long strike and they're going to bleed it out,” an insider told the Deadline website.
What are actors not allowed to do during a strike?
Pretty much anything to do with making or promoting a movie or TV show. Quoting SAG's “general rule number one”: “No member shall provide any service or enter into a service agreement for any employer who has not signed a basic minimum contract with a union.” going on strike with the Writers Guild of America. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images
This means that they cannot participate in the production of films or TV shows. They are also prohibited from promoting projects, including on-camera or behind-the-scenes interviews, appearances at premieres or screenings, or other personal appearances. The union takes the rule “very seriously” – anyone who breaks it faces expulsion.
What about small independent films made without the support of a studio?
Low-budget and independent films can apply for a Sag-Aftra waiver to allow filming. But actors or writers could still picket such productions. In this case, members of other unions, such as the drivers' transport union, could refuse to cross the line. It's all up in the air.
How will this affect Hollywood?
This will put the industry in a deep freeze. The strike will affect blockbusters currently in production. Among them are Wonder Woman 3, Ghostbusters 4, Avatars 3 and 4. Television will also be affected. Netflix's The Sandman will be delayed, as will major US network favorites like NCIS and Young Sheldon.
What about UK production?
The strike of Oppenheimer's stars in London showed that the consequences of the strike would be global. SAG-AFTRA members must comply with the strike even outside the US. This means Ridley Scott's Gladiator 2, starring Paul Mescal, Pedro Pascal and Barry Keoghan, is likely to close in Malta.
It is also expected to push back Deadpool 3, starring Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman, which is filming in the UK. And Wicked, starring Ariana Grande, Bridgerton's Jonathan Bailey and Oscar winner Michelle Yeoh, is currently filming in Buckinghamshire.
Filming for the second season of House of the Dragon may begin. Photo: HBO
But there are mixed signals about how the strike could affect international TV programs like House of the Dragon and Industry. Both are filmed in the UK. The understanding is that since most British actors are members of the Equity union, they have an obligation to keep working. This is stated in the official Equity guide. Ironically, there are speculations that Sharon Horgan's The Bad Sisters and Doctor Who, made in collaboration with the BBC and Disney, may be delayed.
How is the actors' strike related to the writers' strike?
Actors and writers alike are concerned about AI and the impact of streaming on leftovers. The Writers Guild of America has been on strike for 73 days. It has 20,000 members, a tiny number compared to SAG-AFTRA's 160,000.
How long will the strike last?
The strike is indefinite. “It depends (AMPTP), we're open to talking to them tonight,” said Fran Drescher, president of SAG-AFTRA and former star of the sitcom The Babysitter. “It's all because of their behavior, it's up to them if they want to talk normally.”
How will the strike affect awards season?
Striking actors who have already been thwarted by the writers' strike are unlikely to attend the Emmy Awards. “I expect this to end any Emmy campaign,” said SAG-AFTRA's Duncan Crabtree-Ireland
Will we see Tom Cruise on the picket line?
Meryl Streep and Jennifer Lawrence are in favor of the strike. And, as noted, at the Oppenheimer premiere, Cillian Murphy and company left early in solidarity with the union. So A-list seems determined to show their support. “What we strike for if we strike is incredibly important,” Damon said on the Oppenheimer red carpet. “We have to protect the people who are on the sidelines. $26,000 a year is what you have to earn to get health insurance. And there are a lot of people who — residual payments — that's what helps them cross that threshold. If those residual payments dry up, so will their health care. And this is absolutely unacceptable.”
How will this affect what is shown on TV and in cinemas?
Obviously, there are a lot of films that have already been shot, and therefore the drought of what we can see in theaters and on streaming services will be felt a little later. In the meantime, Americans should be prepared to watch a lot more reality shows. American networks have ramped up production on shows such as the US version of The Masked Singer, The Amazing Race, and The Revenant, as they do not feature unionized writers or actors. One odd loophole applies to American daytime series like The Young and the Restless and Day Hospital. For historical reasons, they employ non-union actors who will continue to work.
And, of course, despite the far-reaching consequences, the strike will not affect homegrown British television. Tom Cruise may be knocking down instruments, but the Call the Midwife cast will be showing up to work as usual.
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