Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not speak to Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for six months
They seemed to be best friends when they went hiking and falconry in the Saudi desert to discuss matters of state, just seven years ago.
But this week, an explosive U.S. media report exposed a bitter rift between the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates [UAE], raising fears that their rivalry could escalate into open hostility.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has not spoken to Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan for six months, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing multiple sources. close to the couple.
The crown prince also allegedly threatened a Qatari-style blockade of the UAE during an informal briefing with Saudi journalists in December, warning: “They will see what I can do.”
Saudi and Emirati officials have sought to downplay the inciting details in the report and insist relations between the two countries are strong.
A source close to the Saudi leadership stressed that rivalry between close allies is nothing new, citing the sometimes tumultuous partnership between the US and the UK.
Relations between the two Gulf states remain stable but may not always be comfortable, they said.
When Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud (right) met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during the first meeting of the Saudi Arabian Coordinating Council in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in 2018, everyone smiled. Relations between the two men, better known by their initials MBS and MBZ, have soured as they struggle to fill the Middle East power vacuum left by the Biden administration.
“These are two very ambitious individuals who want to be key players in the region and top players,” a senior U.S. official told the Wall Street Journal, who also interviewed Gulf officials and former U.S. intelligence agents for his report. .
“On some level they are still cooperating. Now neither of them feel comfortable with the other on the same pedestal. In general, it is not profitable for us to have them cut each other's throats,” the official added.
Since the US reduced its presence in the Middle East, Mohammed bin Salman has been trying to present himself as the next major player in the region.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Photo: Anadolu
In recent months, he has led the Arab world. US efforts to normalize relations with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, who spoke at the Arab League summit in May for the first time in a decade.
The process was actually started a few years earlier by the United Arab Emirates, which reopened its embassy in Damascus back in 2018, but Riyadh appears to be taking most of the credit for the move.
The crown prince has also turned to China for help with a major thaw in relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran that will reopen their embassies and potentially end the ongoing war in Yemen, where Riyadh and Tehran are backing opposing sides.
A series of diplomatic upheavals appears to have frustrated MBZ, who not long ago was more of a mentor than rival to the Saudi ruler.
The Emirati leader is said to have played a key role in lobbying the Trump administration for MBS when he was Deputy Crown Prince and helped secure Trump's high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia in 2017.
'Disappointed': Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan Photo: Getty Images Europe
But the existing rivalry goes far beyond diplomacy. Both Gulf states are fighting for global investment and want their capitals to be home to rich, powerful Western companies and expats.
Dubai currently has the upper hand, but Saudi Arabia has launched a number of investment and construction projects, such as the metropolis of Neom, which aim to make the country much more attractive to foreigners.
As MBS sought to modernize its ultra-conservative kingdom, it turned to MBS for advice and hired the same consultants that the UAE used for a similar project a decade earlier, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Economically, the two Gulf countries are increasingly at odds over oil production, while MBS has opened a second national airline to compete with the UAE's Emirates.
Complementarity or competition?
The United States is said to be concerned that power struggles in the Gulf could dampen security coalition efforts. against the sworn enemy of Iran and may delay the work on the settlement of the Yemeni conflict.
Sir John Jenkins, the former British Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said it's not surprising that the rivalry is heating up, but it won't necessarily lead to a major explosion between MBS and MBZ.
“MBS wants to turn [Saudi Arabia] into a kind of strengthened version of the UAE, and this complementarity now looks like competition. This can be dealt with – if both sides are willing to compromise,” he said.
1 A UAE government spokesman denied that there was a split between the two leaders.
“Allegations of strained relations between the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are categorically false and without foundation,” they told The Telegraph.
The Telegraph reached out to the Saudi authorities for comment, but did not receive an immediate response.
“The UAE is a close regional partner of Saudi Arabia, and our politicians converge on a wide range of issues of mutual interest,” a Saudi official told the Wall Street Journal when asked to comment on the alleged split.
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