Labor must win Covid rule-breaker seat

Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar is campaigning in Cambuslang. Photo: Andrew Milligan/Pennsylvania.

The rates for Sir cannot be higher. Keir Starmer in the by-election of Rutherglen and Hamilton West if he wants to show his party and electorate that he is on track to get the keys to 10 Downing Street.

As Jackie Bailey, deputy Scottish Labor leader, admitted on Wednesday morning: «There is no way to a Labor majority government that does not go through Scotland.»

Labor won only one seat north of the border in the 2019 general election compared to the SNP ranked 48th but has high hopes for another 20 seats next year.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West — one of the more marginalized Scottish seats targeted by Labor. sure.

Sir Keir and a number of Shadow Cabinet dignitaries have already visited the site, which is one of the constituencies in and around Glasgow that Labor is desperately trying to wrest from the Nationalists.

He will face huge questions about his leadership if the SNP somehow clings to the seat, especially given the circumstances in which the by-election is taking place.

It will take place in early October after Margaret Ferrier, elected MP for the SNP in the 2019 elections with a majority of 5230, was ousted by her constituents in a recall petition due to a serious breach of Covid rules.

She was suspended from the House of Commons for 30 days after traveling from Scotland to Westminster and back by train while sick with coronavirus in September 2020.

Margaret Ferrier posted photos of her constituency on the day she tested positive for Covid-19. Photo: Twitter/Margaret Ferrier

Public opinion polls show that since the last election, following a surge in support for Sir Keir's party north of the border.

At the same time, support for the SNP dropped by about eight or nine points amid a police investigation into the party's finances, in which Nicola Sturgeon was arrested and her home ransacked.

She was released without charge pending further investigation and declared that she was not guilty of any wrongdoing.

The by-election is the first major electoral test for her successor, Humza Yousaf, as leader of the SNP and First Minister, who has low personal approval ratings.

But Sir John Curtis, Britain's most distinguished Psephologist, said that the stakes in this contest were higher for Sir Keir than for Mr. Yousaf.

He told BBC Radio Scotland: «Given where we are, Given Labor's aspirations, Sir Keir will want to demonstrate that Labor's resurgence in Scotland is not just opinion poll fiction, but reality.»

Sir John said Labor «should get this seat because Labor hopes they can make a big difference north of the border in the next general election.»

'Ability to win overall majority &#39 ;

«These achievements are potentially important, at least to ensure Starmer's ability to win an absolute majority in Westminster,» he said.

“It will certainly make that task easier if, say, Labor can get somewhere between the 10 and 20 seats they are talking about. If that happens, Rutherglen will be on the list of seats that Labor should get.»

He told Radio 4 Today that «so many seats in Scotland are potentially marginal.» , thanks in part to partygate and the Liz Truss government, which led to a surge in Labor support north of the border.

Sir John said the poll was below 30, with the SNP only slightly ahead of it by about 37 per cent, which , he said, was an «unprecedented low» level for nationalists in recent years.

But he said. that Mr. Yusuf will want to use the by-election to demonstrate that his party is not losing as many votes to Labor as the polls show.

He said: “Even if the SNP loses the seat, the degree they will lose will make a difference both to morale and people's confidence in Humza Yusaf's ability to solve the difficulties the SNP is currently in.”

By-elections on 5 or 12 October

By-elections are likely to take place on either 5 or 12 October. A serious defeat by the SNP will give Mr Yusuf a huge headache ahead of his party's conference in Aberdeen starting in a few days, on 15 October.

Sir John predicted that the SNP would try to make independence the centerpiece of its campaign, and support for division in the polls will be higher than support for the party.

Furthermore, the Nationalists are trying to exploit Sir Keir's refusal to commit to repeal the two-child benefit cap, arguing that this shows that between Labor and Tory make little difference. Rishi Sunak's half word, warning: «Starmer says Labor in power will stick to Conservative policies that experts say will keep up to 15,000 children in Scotland in poverty.»

Sir's ability Keira's rejection of this line of attack and defeat of the 81,000 voters of Rutherglen and West Hamilton in the coming months could be the reason for his appointment to the premiership.