Senior Conservatives poised to leave party's 30,000 membership when dues rise 56%, amid signs of broader Tory mass discontent .
Numbers on the Conservative Party's board and chairmen of local associations told The Telegraph that it is estimated that the decline in membership could be as high as 16 percent.
The party has about 180,000 members, according to The Telegraph. members — the exact number has not been made public — meaning that membership could drop by almost 30,000 if worst fears come true.
This is partly due to a change in the way payments are accepted. The Tories want people to pay by direct debit, which makes it easier for them to raise prices, but that means many who currently pay on a standing order must opt out.
There is, however, genuine disappointment . in some places due to an increase in standard annual membership fees from £25 to £39 starting next January, part of a wider disillusionment with the status quo.
It came when The Telegraph took the temperature of the Grassroots Conservatives to understand the party's momentum ahead of the 2024 general election.
Will the Conservative Party win the next general election?
The chairmen of associations, people who managed to become candidates for parliament, as well as those who were rejected, and campaigners who advocate for strengthening the power of party members, shared their thoughts.
There was a picture of despondency in the state. about opinion polls, about last year's bitter divisions that remain only hidden, and about what could happen next year.
«To be honest, 90 percent of my members are unhappy with the current government,» said chairman of a conservative association in the Southeast. “Ninety percent of them think they don't follow conservative policies. I constantly fight for their motivation and for them to work for the good of society.
“People would prefer tax cuts. People would prefer economic prosperity. All these things seem to be lost.”
This feeling is not universally acknowledged. Some senior local party officials agree with the difficulties of the current financial situation, with debt and rising prices making tax cuts difficult.
There are warm words to Rishi Sunak's competence, integrity and early success in stitching money. the parliamentary party is back together, but the feeling of malaise may intensify.
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In the coming months, the Prime Minister will try to inflame Sir Keir Starmer's Labor Party with his inner circle and party strategists choosing specific political battles.
What motivates voters and Tory members, as well as the position of the opposition, will be important importance in making this decision.
Conservative MPs, who still nurture leadership ambitions, are also considering what might happen after the next general election, which is expected to be held in autumn 2024.< /p>
If the Tories do lose — and the polls show Labor leading by nearly 20 percentage points — the race for leadership determined by members will likely follow.
«There's definitely a sense that the party didn't really care about their people,” said one of the figures, who in recent months has been seeking election as a candidate for the Conservatives.
“Perhaps, these are such things as a high tax burden, housing and construction indicators. Everyone feels that they are paying more taxes and getting less. I think it's just general irritability.”
Any political party that's been in power for 13 years faces the problem of a lack of cover when the electorate asks why the problems haven't been resolved. But the Tories must explain to their constituents and members why the positions underlying their public branding have not been implemented.
For generations, the Conservatives have acted as the low-tax party. However, the tax burden — the total tax as a percentage of GDP — is on track for a 70-year high.
The Tories preach a smaller state. However, since the Brexit referendum in 2016, public spending has risen and the number of civil servants has increased by 100,000, now exceeding half a million.
UK civil service headcount Tax burden and public spending
Border control is another key element of Tory positioning. However, David Cameron's promise to bring annual net migration below 100,000 people has not been kept, and the latest figure is around 600,000 people.
2,605 net migration
There are explanations. The huge financial injections needed to support the economy during Covid are putting a heavy burden on the public purse, increasing taxes and spending. However, the desire of the Conservative leadership to convince its base that it still believes in the principles it preaches is very real.
«Some desperation looking at the polls,» said Ed Costello, chairman of Grassroots Conservatives . , an activist group set up to force Cameron to «stay gay» during a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
Of course there are people who think they're not Tory enough. They ask: «What vision are we going to give the people in the next election compared to what Starmer is doing, and will there be the right help?»
“There are others who believe that, given Covid and everything that has happened since then, there is little room for movement, for example, regarding tax cuts. In general, the feeling is like depression.”
Tensions have flared at some points during the selection of candidates for Parliament, for example, at a recent meeting dedicated to the choice of a Tory successor, Sajid Javid, in Bromsgrove.
Four candidates made the shortlist, selected from a longer list of candidates approved by the Conservative campaign headquarters and then cut by local senior Conservatives.
But on the night of the selection, some members took the dramatic step of rejecting all four candidates with a rare procedure used. The vote they forced failed, but the story has been circulating ever since, taken as a sign of discontent.
Added to the mix is a new group loosely linked to Boris Johnson — made up of aides to the ex-prime minister, but he keeps his distance — that is trying to defend the interests of its members.
The Conservative Democratic Party Organization lamented the fact that party members did not elect Mr. Sunak, who became leader in October without a vote from members.
A source within the organization told The Telegraph that up to 200 people who received Tory approval for seats quietly joined the cause.
The group aims to empower its members even more. Whatever the merits of this push, there is one side effect: the wound of last year's deep Tory split remains open.
These battles, ironically, have increased membership in the Conservative Party with the prospect of potentially choosing future prime ministers. encouraging new people to sign up.
New members are already paying a new fee of £39. Those close to Nadhim Zahavi, who approved a fee hike when he was Conservative chairman, insist that just over £3 a month is not unreasonable. The annual amount is also still lower than the annual Labor Party membership. Both parties offer discounts to less well-off groups.
According to the Conservative Campaign Headquarters, the reduction in membership will not be as significant as 30,000 people feared. A Conservative Party spokesman said he would not accept the 16 percent figure as an official estimate.
Whatever happens, as the election year approaches, storm clouds hang over Tory members.
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