The fearsome Irish team has a chance to get revenge on Saturday in Dublin. Photo: Peter Morrison/Peter Morrison
You can't win the World Cup Cup in August, but you can certainly suffer debilitating setbacks.
We've already seen brutal injuries in the current warm-up schedule, and Romain Ntamak is doomed to miss his home tournament. Even if France has become a great team under Fabien Galtier, the loss of the first midfielder can confuse anyone.
In the matches themselves, priority is given to performance. Results that mean as much as the team allows. But psychological plots remain in play. For example, after the last two weeks, Wales will not be nervous about the quarter-final against England. Frankly, no one will.
Four years ago, this very weekend, Ireland suffered a devastating blow to their confidence at Twickenham. Having lost 32-20 to England in Dublin six months earlier, the defeat left them «broken», according to head coach Joe Schmidt, they fell apart in spectacular fashion.
The new back-line duo of Tom Curry and Sam Underhill energized England, while the midfield of George Ford, Owen Farrell and Manu Tuilagi, with Joe Kokanaciga on the same flank, was successful. Schmidt called the 57–15 beating «an aberration». In his autobiography, he mentioned the professional risk of preparing for the World Cup, «when the pre-season workload spills over into the game week.»
In fact, Ireland never seemed to recover. They were beaten 19-12 by Japan in the pool stages and then 46-14 by New Zealand in a one-sided quarter-final. On the contrary, England grew bolder. They knew they had the firepower to take down opponents and would rediscover the same intensity for knockout wins against Australia and the All Blacks before South Africa dropped them to the ground with a punch.
England punished Ireland at Twickenham ahead of the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Photo: Getty Images/David Rogers
With the upcoming World Cup ahead of them, England are in dire need of a performance — or even a dominant playing passage in the game — to hang their hats and ignite self-confidence. Steve Borthwick has hinted at the same reasoning Schmidt used in 2019, that hard weeks of training is draining his players, with a longer-term goal in mind, but he has to admit that it all looks decidedly unconvincing. What's more, Owen Farrell's circus is a distraction from his intention to keep the preparations under wraps. And now they are going to the Aviva stadium.
Ireland have won the last three Tests against England after losing four in a row to 93 points. This is despite the fact that England have been on the defensive for an impressively long time in their last two matches. Ireland hit with smart punches and stretched the men in white with typically fast and intricate phase play, but the floodgates haven't opened yet.
It's easy to imagine Andy Farrell nodding to 2019 in preparation for this game, imploring his players to remember how Twickenham felt and suggesting how much better it would be to impose such a punishment rather than absorb it. There are other parallels as well. Like four years ago, Ireland is returning from the Portuguese camp. Ross Byrne, who started at 57-15, is likely to start in the semi-finals on Saturday due to the absence of suspended Johnny Sexton.
This is Ireland's second warm-up match. In their first match against Italy, they scored five tries in a 33–17 win. Even amid the bugs and rust, their swift form and skills were sharp enough, and they used their muscles to capitalize on short opportunities.
Particularly eye-catching were the two brilliant stages that led to their last five-pointer, the second Kalan Doris. Ciarán Frawley and Jack Crowley skirted the cancer to make room for Jacob Stockdale, who was vacated by the roaming Keith Earles. Moments later, Tadg Beirn passed to Frawley and Doris passed the ball to Keanu Prendergast. With the slender back rower unloading, Calvin Nash found himself a meter from the attempt line. Ireland was close to whitewashing and Ireland kept her composure and Doris rewarded the cute approach.
rust in Dublin. against Italy last weekend. Photo: Getty Images/Ramsey Cardy
England can only point to the convulsive flashes of the cuts. Defensively, expect them to fight hard in the break-up when Ireland has the ball and urge referee Paul Williams to be careful of their opponents coming in from the side of the ruck. Offensively, Borthwick's men are forced to shoot, correcting mistakes that have hurt their fluency and limited them to a single failed run in 160 minutes against Wales. First of all, they should strive to keep 15 people on the field.
England were 32 minutes short against Wales last week, having played 22 minutes with 14 players, five minutes with 13 and another five with 12. Thanks to red cards for Charlie Ewels and Freddie Steward and a late yellow for Jack Willis in Dublin, they were missing a full deck for about 120 of the 160 minutes that made up their last two meetings with Ireland. Simply put, England fans had every reason to believe that their tournament would not be a failure. Given a mere tie, avoiding the best nations, sheer competence can go a long way.
While it may be a fake war before a real one, and it's hard to gauge pre-season performances, England appear vulnerable. Four years after 2019, Ireland won't want to miss a chance to cheer up.
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