As for threats, they are not particularly veiled. It's as if Vladimir Putin either couldn't hide his warning, or simply didn't want to.
The day after Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash, he described his former loyal assistant as a «talented businessman» who «made several serious mistakes.»
Putin asserted himself as the master dog in Russia, and if anyone dared to challenge him, as Prigozhin did during the failed rebellion two months ago. before they too would have died.
But this show of strength could also breed weakness.
Prigozhin died on Wednesday, along with nine others, when his private jet crashed shortly after takeoff from Moscow.
Western intelligence agencies have accused Putin of planting the bomb. The Kremlin denies this.
prigozhin 2
After appearing unusually mild-mannered and asking for support from ordinary Russians the morning after the coup began, Putin has now made good on his promise to punish Prigozhin for his betrayal. .
And many analysts say this display of ruthless revenge strengthens Putin.
“That was expected,” said Professor Nikolai Petrov, a visiting researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
“If you are the leader of the mafia and someone challenges you, this guy needs to be punished defiantly.”
According to Andrey Soldatov, an expert on the Russian security services, Prigozhin's death also strengthened Putin. He said it was simply untenable for Putin to let a senior Wagner leader live after he humiliated him in June.
“It makes the situation more stable for Putin,” he said.
But while analysts say Putin must act to save the system he has created, a system that relies on a show of force, some analysts also said that this short-term success could have long-term consequences.
Psychologists talk about the «connection power and fear» of dictators, a trait that runs through history, from antiquity to the present day.
Roughly speaking, this connection means that the dictator's paranoia deepens the longer he holds power, and the more this power is growing. The more power he gains, the more he suspects that his inner circle is plotting against him.
And when a dictator starts killing his inner circle, his paranoia multiplies and makes him weaker.
«Dictatorship figures on throughout history have exhibited a paradoxical mixture of dominance and fear, revealing deep anxiety about their own precarious position,” writes Seth D. Norholm, assistant professor of psychiatry at the Wayne University School of Medicine in Detroit. /p>
And Putin's paranoia could be his downfall. Like Julius Caesar in Rome, he now has to look over his shoulder and continue to demonstrate that he can again and again take tough decisive action against alleged conspirators, spreading fear and hatred.
Caesar was assassinated in 44 BC AD senators because they were worried about the concentration of power in his hands.
The Russian security forces may be too widespread and the elite too fragmented and too dependent on the system to launch a successful conspiracy now, but some analysts say the alleged assassination of Prigozhin has narrowed Putin's options and room to maneuver.
On The Spectator, Professor Mark Galeotti, a Russia analyst and author of several books on Putin, said that Prigozhin's assassination pushed the elite and Russian ultra-nationalists to a still distant «tipping point.»
the moment when they consider themselves his hostages, not his supporters,” he said.
This is the problem that Brian Klass, assistant professor of global politics at University College, is addressing. Calls London a «dictator's trap.»
Prigozhin's timeline
He wrote in The Atlantic that Prigozhin's assassination would backfire because high-ranking loyalists would now wonder if they would be next and if they'd better leave London country or live in Russia without Putin.
“In authoritarian regimes, every action is accompanied by a compromise, and those who seek to consolidate power almost always end up undermining it. A short-term display of brutal force ensures long-term weakness,” he said.
Putin, in his trademark fashion, chose to remain on the sidelines for 48 hours after Prigozhin’s assassination, almost accidentally dropping his thinly veiled warning and desire to be seen hosting collaborators from the occupied parts of Ukraine, speaking at an international Allied meeting in South Africa via video link, and meeting with Russian soldiers in the Kremlin.
The message he wants to convey is that everything is going on as usual, except that that the alleged assassination of Prigozhin means that there can never again be business as usual in Russia.
«The elite will think what's going on?» said John Foreman, a former British military attaché in Moscow. “Who is next when Putin will look for a “fifth column”? This may change their assessment of the risks and rewards of working with this man.”
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