The Kremlin has longed for Wagner's presence in Syria
For almost a decade, this has been the core of Russian foreign policy piracy: participating in wars in Ukraine, in the Middle East and Africa, while getting richer.
But with the death of its leader and his closest deputies, Wagner's private military company may be coming to an end.
But the Kremlin, too it may be difficult to replace the Wagner brand — with its unique combination of hard power and influence in the Middle East and Africa.
< p>Although Yevgeny Prigozhin did not found the Wagner Group (he joined it later), he was — as a financier and manager — its corporate mastermind and largely responsible for its commercial success.
It was his connections with the Kremlin, as well as his gift for personal connections and corrupt «understandings» have turned him from one of the many motley gangs that fought the Russian invasion of Donbass in 2014 into a world-traveling mercenary empire.
“Prigozhin had a rare ability to win the loyalty of the fighters, as well as make deals with the local elite,” said Mark Galeotti, an expert on the Russian security services who is currently writing a book on Prigozhin.
“He would not rise so far and so quickly without the patronage of Vladimir Putin. But things were already going relatively well for him. In his own way, he was an effective entrepreneur, especially in the environment in which Wagner operates.
Wagner's global presence is as broad as it is brutal.
Countries in which Wagner works
In Libya, they cooperate with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army, and were instrumental in his failed attack on Tripoli in 2019. Wagner mercenaries were once spotted in the Sharara oil field, the largest.
Wagner mercenaries have also been present in Sudan since 2017, where they control a gold refinery and reportedly supported the Rapid Support Forces in the civil war that broke out there in April.
In West Africa, Wagner has a contract with by the governments of the Central African Republic and Mali, and he received the rights to mine gold and other minerals in both countries.
Burkina Faso was forced to deny Wagner's hiring but hailed Russia as a strategic ally, and the group's «consultants» were rumored to have been in contact with the military that carried out the coup in Niger last month, a testament to the brand's infamy. , whatever their real involvement.
This empire was already in trouble before Prigozhin and Wagner's military founder Dmitry Utkin allegedly died on Wednesday.
MAP Location of Prigozhin's plane crash
The Secret Prigozhin's rapid business success, which he shares with many Russian «tycoons», was the result of Vladimir Putin's patronage.
It was a lavish food contract with the Ministry of Defense that provided seed money for Wagner's overseas expansion.
p>
Close relationships with the Russian military intelligence (GRU) and the Kremlin gave Wagner access to training bases, weapons, and a nod to jobs in Syria, Libya, and the Central African Republic.
That patronage disappeared the moment when Prigozhin, Utkin and many of their operatives recklessly decided to mutiny two months ago.
< p>In a treacherous world where business and government merge, personal connections are vital, and losing Putin's trust is toxic.
Some Wagner bases in Syria were besieged last month and their commanders questioned, presumably to assess their threat Putin's rule and whether a new coup is being prepared from Damascus.
In July, Reuters reported that many Wagner fighters were forced to sign new contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry or simply kicked out of Syria, citing Syrian regime officials. This repression suggests that both Bash Assad and Putin feel threatened by troublesome Wagner militants at home. On Tuesday, the day before Prigozhin's plane crashed, Yunnus bey Yevkurov, Russia's deputy defense minister, arrived. in Libya for talks with General Haftar.
Wagner signed a contract to train Syrian mercenaries
A press release from the ministry said that this was «the first official visit of a Russian military delegation to Libya» and that its purpose was «to discuss the prospects for cooperation in the fight against international terrorism.» and other questions of joint action.”
There could be no clearer signal that the army intends to invade Wagner territory.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based military think tank, said that The Russian Ministry of Defense has recently begun forming new mercenary groups that will replace Wagner in Africa.
The personnel and commanders of Wagner were subjected to a hunt for personnel. for new groups. Prigozhin's trip to Africa was likely an attempt to fend off Russian military plans and set up new missions for Wagner, one Russian insider told ISW.
The institute said: “The source claimed that the Deputy Chief of the GRU (Head of the Special Activities Service), Colonel General Andrey Averyanov, led efforts to completely block Wagner’s actions in Africa and that there were plans to create and train an army corps of more than 20 thousand people as a replacement Wagner.»
The source added that Prigozhin was strongly opposed to these efforts and «made every effort to prevent them.»
Wagner group mercenaries in Mali Photo: French army via AP
The Ministry of Defense mercenary organization Redoubt can easily take over Wagner's combat roles abroad.
Its founder, GRU General Vladimir Alekseyev, reportedly clashed with Prigozhin on several occasions over what could be called a share of the mercenary market. .
But he lacks Prigozhin's ability to find mutual understanding and negotiate with local leaders. And Wagner did not just offer weapons for rent.
Prigozhin's Concord group could provide autocrats with paid Internet trolls to portray them as legitimate leaders opposed to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, as well as «political consultants» to help rig elections.
Commercial structure will provide business. It was a package for an aspiring autocrat, Mr. Galeotti said. The reward of Russian influence in Africa was significant.
Wagner soldiers in Syria were asked to sign contracts with the Russian military
In short, the Kremlin has made Wagner indispensable. Now they may have harmed him.
They may try to continue the operation in one form or another. But the company has already lost some of its other key executives. Andrey Troshev, the man often referred to as Wagner's chief executive, has reportedly already moved to Redoubt.
Wanda Felbab-Brown, a security and armed conflict analyst at the US think tank Brookings, said Wagner was under a new leadership is likely to continue to be used as a tool to protect Russian interests.
“Projections of a halt to the operations of the Wagner Group in Africa and the Middle East after its ill-fated insurgency in Russia are premature,” she wrote in a July message to the Brookings think tank.
«It is more likely that Wagner's operations in the Middle East and Africa will continue: they still serve multiple interests of the Russian state and can be separated from Wagner's operations in Ukraine and Russia.»
Свежие комментарии