Conservative 'safe seat' that could spell disaster for Sunak

Mid Bedfordshire has been under Conservative Party control since 1931, but that could change

Britain gets no more Tories than Mid Bedfordshire , a patchwork of small towns, villages and hamlets on the outer edges of the London commuter belt, which has been under party control since 1931. At the last election the Conservative candidate was returned with a majority of 24,664, representing 59.8 per cent of the vote. But the window of Tudor House, a handsome Grade II listed brick and oak beam building in Shefford, reveals an incongruous sight. “Vote Labour,” says the red poster.

A Conservative defeat in the October 19 by-election would be the largest number of votes to be overturned in British election history, and the third Conservative defeat in a by-election since Rishi Sunak took office a year ago. The seriousness with which the party takes this is clear from the figures bussed in to join their candidate Festus Akinbusoye on the campaign trail: Sunak, Theresa May, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Penny Mordaunt, among others.< /p > Festus Akinbusoye, the Conservative candidate, is the current Police and Crime Commissioner for Bedfordshire. Photo: David Rose

If the Tories also lose in Tamworth — where they have a majority of 19,634 — the music on the day around the Prime Minister and his party will be anything but positive as the country prepares for a general election next year.

For 18 years, the MP for Mid Bedfordshire was none other than Nadine Dorries, an ardent supporter of Boris Johnson, who announced her retirement from politics in June after the House of Lords Appointments Committee rejected the peerage he nominated her for. However, Dorries delayed her official departure from the House of Commons for almost three months, which was widely interpreted as an intention to cause maximum damage to Sunak, who decided not to overturn the committee's decision.

Dorries's Final Act effectively deprived her of any representation in Parliament. But this wasn't necessarily unusual: in the summer of 2020, her constituency office in Shefford became a dance studio and never opened anywhere else; She was reported to have last conducted surgery at a polling station in March 2020; and she last spoke in parliament in July 2022. (Representatives for Dorris did not respond to requests for comment.)

In Mid Bedfordshire, the consequence of her inaction has been a real sense of resentment among former Tory voters who will now not vote for the party in the by-election.

«She was a waste of time and money, a waste of space,» says Ralph Hopkins, a 78-year-old retiree who saw action in Northern Ireland for 12-and-a-half years in the Royal Horse Artillery. He intends to vote for reform. “I don't mind paying good money if people show they're working, but not if you want to sit back and do all the sweet stuff and do nothing for it, do nothing for us.”

Caroline Bogan, 57, plans to vote Labor despite once being an ardent supporter of Mrs Thatcher. “I don't need an MP every day to live my daily life, but Nadine hasn't represented us properly for two or three years,” she says over an espresso outside a cafe in Ampthill, one of three small constituencies. cities. “I don’t like how the Tories have moved towards Boris, towards hard and pointless entitlement. I really wish this spot didn't go to Tori next week.»

Conservative campaign sources believe they find themselves in a «real three-way fight» with Labor and the Lib Dems for what was once the safest of all safe seats. Notably, the gap between the parties is believed to have narrowed, with the latest voter survey showing Labor and the Conservatives level at 29 points, with the Lib Dems further behind on 22.

Indeed, the two opposition parties have felt the blood of the Tories and are campaigning at full capacity, unlike most by-elections where one party makes way for the other to maximize the chances of victory. Conservative defeat.

«We regularly hear knocks on the door and a tenfold increase in junk mail from large shipments,» says pensioner Lynne Cheadle, 63, at the Ampthill market where she was shopping with her husband David. 67. “It was an extremely active campaign.”

“Oh my God, since the day Nadine said she was going to leave in the summer, I have never seen so many leaflets and letters,” adds Bohan. “I would like one of them to give way. This is the risk of the Lib Dems and Labor splitting the «I don't want to vote for the Tories» vote.

«I'm confident in victory for the Tories,” he said. says Evan Cawley (left). Photo: David Rose

The families of Adam Goodyear, 39, and Evan Cowley, 30, have always supported the Labor Party, but both friends intend to vote for Akinbusoye. “There are a lot of activists, posters and leaflets here, but they were never here before the by-election,” says Adam. “I've noticed in Labor literature that they say the Lib Dems can't win here and it's a wasted vote. This is just election campaigning, isn't it?

Evan isn't convinced either. «We're being bombarded by the Lib Dems and Labor here,» says the business consultant. “But they weren’t really involved in the arguments and nothing much happened. I'm confident the Tories will win.»

The rivalry between Labor and the Liberal Democrats has at times even reached the point of extreme bitterness. Two weeks ago, the Labor Party accused «wild» Lib Dem activists of shouting abuse and intimidating campaigners campaigning for its candidate Alistair Strathern. The Lib Dems responded duly, declaring that it was Labor activists who were guilty of «dirty tricks».

The Labor campaign even threatened to go to the police with allegations of electoral violations after Strathearn, who only began renting in the constituency after Dorries announced her intention to resign, was portrayed in Lib Dem campaign literature as an outsider . The irony, as one Conservative source points out, is that Lib Dem candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay lives in Leighton Buzzard, which is in Bedfordshire but outside the current constituency boundaries. “This is some kind of fraud,” they said.

A Labor spokesman did not deny that Strathearn only started renting in Middlefordshire after Dorries promised to leave in June, saying: «Alistair Strathearn grew up in the county and now lives in Shefford.» The Liberal Democrats also did not deny that Holland-Lindsay lives outside the constituency, but argued that it did not matter due to proposed boundary changes due to be made at the next general election. “Labour and Conservative Party candidates will no longer reside in this constituency,” they said.

Labour's Mid-Bedfordshire by-election candidate Alistair Strathern Photo: PA

However, a united vote against the Tories could easily sink Akinbusoye and he is genuinely relishing the opportunity he now has to take advantage of the victory. «While Labor and the Lib Dems are busy fighting each other and tearing each other apart, I'm solely focused on fighting for local people and the issues we care about,» he explains, canvassing on Shefford's high street. “I’m not interested in party politics, it’s just not my thing. Labor and the Lib Dems: they are focused on fighting each other, and that is their problem.”

Akinbusoye, who moved to the UK from Nigeria at the age of 13, is currently Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner. He has lived in the county for 15 years and previously patrolled its streets as a special constable. In contrast to Dorries's regular absences, he has promised to open a constituency office, carry out regular surgeries and tour the 47 villages of Mid Bedfordshire with «rural mobile surgical units».

His campaign made much of the fact that he is the only candidate who «lives, works and raises a family» in the district. But they know every Tory in Mid Bedfordshire needs to get out and vote on election day if Akinbusoye is to have any chance of winning, which he says is «something I would never have thought of «, as a young immigrant. < /p>

«But this just demonstrates the greatness of Britain,» he adds with passionate patriotism for all to see. “Great things are happening in this country.”