Tory voters switching to reform cost the Conservatives seats in by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth, data shows.
The number of votes won by Richard Tice's rebel center-right party was greater than Labour's majority in any constituency.
This means that if reformist voters had either stayed home or been elected in support for the Tories, Labor could be stripped of one or both of its victories.
Labour handed the Tories their two worst by-election defeats ever, with a majority of 19,634 wiped out. Tamworth and Labor in Mid Bedfordshire set a new record for the largest numerical majority overturned in a UK by-election since 1945.
However, Reform received 1,373 votes (5.4 per cent) in Tamworth and 1,487 (3.7 per cent) in Mid Bedfordshire, while the Labor majority in the two seats was 1,316 and 1,192 votes respectively.
In a message on Twitter. Tice wrote: «Twice in one night Reform ensured that the Tories lost their seat because of this by-election result.
» And this despite enormous pressure — pressure from the Tories on voters, saying: «Don't vote for reform.»
On Thursday the Conservatives published a Facebook advert targeting Tamworth residents saying: “Reform can't win. Every vote for them makes a Labor Party victory more likely.»
Luke Thrill, UK director of the More In Common think tank, said: “The Tories will have a new worry after tonight — the emergence of a split on the right, with the UK voting for reform outpacing the Labor majority in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
< p>“This suggests that Rishi Sunak may now be losing support on two fronts — from the Labor left and the Liberal Democrats and from the UK reform right.
“Expect more hand-wringing about the split in the UK. right in the coming weeks.»
Dave Holland, a by-election candidate for Mid Bedfordshire, votes on Thursday Photo: Facebook < p>Turnout fell sharply at both by-elections, with 40,720 votes cast in Mid Bedfordshire, down 29.6 per cent on the 2019 general election, and 25,586 ballots in Tamworth representing a decline of 28.4 per cent. .
Senior Tory figures were quick to point out that many of their own voters appeared to be staying at home, with Labor effectively only increasing its share of the vote in Tamworth from 10,908 to 11,719.
Lord Hayward, fellow Tory and an election expert told The Telegraph: “They didn't vote for the government, but turnout is falling markedly. In my estimation, by-elections are usually viewed as protest votes. In this case, it is a “non-voting” protest.
“They just sit back. There is no doubt this is a very good result for Labour. There has always been latent support for Labor in Tamworth, but it is mostly those who don't vote who win.
“In these circumstances people don't vote, or if they do vote, they vote against the Government because of the events of the last two years — tired of the saga of 2020, 2021 and 2022. So you have to prove that you're competent and hope it works.»
Conservative Festus Akinbusoye defeated Labour's Alistair Strathern, who won with a majority of 1,192 votes in Mid Bedfordshire. Photo: Justin Tallis/AFP
Comparisons have been made with 1997, the year of Sir Tony Blair's landslide victory, due to the current scale of the transition to Labour.
Between 1992 and 1997, the Conservative government defended majority in eight quotas. election and lost every single one.
However, turnout was significantly higher in a number of these polls, including in South East Staffordshire, which was replaced by Tamworth in the 1996 redistricting review.
In this election, which also saw a shift of more than 20 percentage points from the Tories to the Labor Party, turnout was 62 percent.
Labour also increased its vote by more than 20%. 4,000, which suggests that many more people switched to Sir Tony's party almost three decades ago than on Thursday under Sir Keir.
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