Hezbollah's leader has remained silent since the start of the war, indicating that he has not yet decided whether to fight Hamas. Photo: Hussein Malla/AP
Israeli analysts say there are differences between Hezbollah's elite commandos in southern Lebanon, which are pushing for all-out war with Israel, and the more cautious militia leadership in Beirut.
Bottom Line Tensions that are well balanced could determine whether a second front opens in northern Israel, drawing in the US and triggering a broader conflict.
Tit-for-tat exchanges, some deadly, between Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have heightened tensions since the October 7 massacre. However, both sides were careful not to cross unwritten but widely understood boundaries that could provoke wider escalation.
Professor Manuel Traitenberg, executive director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, said, that the confrontation in the north is tense and it is too early to know which direction it will go.
He said Hezbollah's charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah, «who prides himself on precision,» remained unusually silent for 17 days after the massacre, suggesting he had not yet decided what to do.
Nasrallah , who saw Hezbollah's military capabilities and wealth destroyed by Israeli missiles in the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel War, knows firsthand what it means to rebuild.
Hassan Nasrallah regrets starting the 2006 war after Hezbollah's wealth was destroyed. Photo: AFP/Getty
“He is quoted as saying he regrets starting the war in 2006, and intelligence analysts have long believed Tehran blames him for keeping Hezbollah intact to could be used as a “deterrent” to repel Western actions against Iran.
“The current understanding — and it's very unstable — is that Iran doesn't want Hezbollah to attack,” Traitenberg said.
«They view Hezbollah and its missiles as a doomsday weapon and don't want it to be wasted because of what's happening with Hamas… Iran doesn't care about anything other than the survival of the regime.» .
Sima Shine, an Iran specialist who served as head of research for the Mossad's intelligence division, told the Telegraph last week that Iran had made an «unprecedented» diplomatic effort after the Hamas attack in an attempt to broker a ceasefire and preserve Hamas. and Hezbollah is intact.
What is harder to understand, analysts say, is the behavior of Hezbollah troops in southern Lebanon.
While the group's leadership worries about the group's reputation in Lebanon, where it is a major political force, and in Tehran, which provides it with funding, its foot soldiers worry about how they will be perceived by fellow fanatics on the front lines. .
Of particular concern is Hezbollah's elite Al-Haj Radwan group, a well-equipped 2,500-strong commando group that recently saw action in Syria and is now well entrenched in southern Lebanon.
They are similar to Hamas forces The Nukhba, who led the attack on October 7, were recently seen rehearsing for a similar ground attack on the Galilee in northern Israel.
Professor Traitenberg said: “If they do not act, their position among the Axis of Resistance [the group of terrorist proxies that Iran funds in the region] will be diminished. It's a real dilemma for them.»
Hezbollah soldiers are concerned about how other militia groups will be perceived on the front lines. Photo: Hassan Ammar/AP
He added that there was tension between Beirut's leadership and Hezbollah militants on the ground.
“There are signs that Radwan's [forces] are enthusiastic; their commanders on the ground are ready to act because they have been planning this for so long, they have been trained in this, they are ready, and fourthly.
“We know that there is tension. [with the leadership] and it is dangerous,” he said.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior fellow at INSS and a former analyst at the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, recently published a detailed analysis of the likelihood of war in the north.
“The risk of escalation in the North will increase as the war continues: Under Iranian leadership, Hezbollah will certainly seek to maintain a high level of conflict in the north throughout the war and may seek further escalation along the border as fighting develops in the south – in specifically, once the IDF ground maneuver begins, but keep it below the threshold of full-scale war,” she wrote.
“[But] this remains a dangerous possibility, whether intentional or through uncontrolled escalation.”
“[But] it remains a dangerous possibility, whether intentionally or through uncontrolled escalation.”
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Ms Mizrahi told The Telegraph yesterday that the surprise of the October 7 attacks meant that many previous Israeli intelligence assumptions had been proven wrong. is being revised, including the idea that Iran would keep Hezbollah in reserve as an «ace card» or deterrent.
She said Iran's «position in the world» has changed over the past two years with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and the deepening of its relations with countries including Russia. This meant it could have more confidence, but also more to lose.
All researchers agreed that America's unprecedented intervention in the conflict after the October 7 attack could prove decisive in preventing a wider war.
Israel has reportedly given firm assurances to US President Joe Biden that the IDF will not open a front in the north, despite Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly insisting on launching a first strike against Hezbollah in the near future. consequences.
Israel does not want a global war.
In turn, the US has assured Israel that it will use its own naval forces in the eastern Mediterranean to intervene in the event of a Hezbollah attack — something it has never done before.< /p>
Two US carrier groups, consisting of a total of more than 14 heavily armed ships, are capable of helping intercept Hezbollah missiles, which, if launched en masse, are expected to overcome Israel's own air defenses.
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The ships also carry long-range missiles with a variety of warheads capable of hitting Iran.
The US presence has been a “real deterrent,” Ms. Mizrahi said. “In the eyes of the Iranians, they wouldn’t want a war with the Americans, right? They would not want to enter into a global war.”
She added that by occupying such a prominent place in the conflict, the US presence would act as a constraint—even a “burden”—on Israel. yourself, limiting your freedom to act without consultation.
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