Downing Street was forced to deny rumors that the chancellor could be removed as a result of the reshuffle. Photo: Imageplotter/Avalon
Pondering the question Ahead of the general election campaign, an influential Tory familiar with planning was recently asked which cabinet ministers were rated for their messaging skills.
James Cleverley was one of them, The foreign minister's easy manner in the interview pleased the center so much that the issue of switching to an internal ballot before voting day is under consideration.
Claire Coutinho, recently appointed energy security secretary, was another of the new generation of Tory leaders that No 10 is seeking publicity.
Suella Braverman, the home secretary, is thought to be appealing to the right-wing, tough-talking part of the electorate that the Tories believe they need to have any chance of re-election.
Even Lee Anderson, the energetic deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, who is not a cabinet minister but is considered the party's «secret weapon» in the fight for re-election, received a mention.
One name, however, was conspicuous by its absence: the name The second most powerful figure in Rishi Sunak's government, the man with the money: Jeremy Hunt.
This is the Chancellor and his chances. remain in office until the next election, which has made headlines in search of scalps after two by-election defeats last week.
On Friday, Tory tax-cut campaigners told reporters, unprompted, that perhaps the prime minister should take a stand against Mr Hunt, given Labor's huge lead in the polls remains consistently high.
On Saturday evening, The Observer reported that «senior Conservatives» had advised Mr Hunt to stand down as an MP at this election — a demand his team rejected.
On Monday Downing Street was forced to deny rumors that the Chancellor could be removed from office — and this is a direct blow that, no matter how well played, always keeps the idea in circulation.
“The Prime Minister and the Chancellor are working very closely on the Autumn Statement; «Obviously we will not speculate on a permanent reshuffle,» Mr Sunak's spokesman said.
The idea that Mr. Hunt could be removed from office anytime soon evokes the usual «nothing to see here» hand-waving dismissals No. 10 and No. 11. That may well be true. But if the dynamics of Hunt's rise to chancellor are unpacked, the political pressures Sunak faces and the emerging election strategy raise questions about whether it will continue all the way to the ballot box.
First, this is how Mr. Hunt ended up at the Treasury. It was Liz Truss, not Rishi Sunak, who gave him the promotion as she struggled to save her premiership.
Indeed, according to one senior Downing Street figure, Mr Hunt was not Mr Hunt's choice. for Sunak to become prime minister. role had the latter won the Tory leadership last summer.
Instead it is Oliver Dowden, the current Deputy Prime Minister, and Mel Stride, the Work and Pensions Secretary, both core members of Rishi's team who were considered the two favorites .
This is wrong. To say Mr Hunt and Mr Sunak's relationship was strained is far from it, according to those who have seen the men work together up close.
They are similar in temperament and instinct, preferring evidence-based policy development. and a preference for substance over style, with a suspicion of political showmen. Harsh critics, who in turn call both «administrators», add to the tendency towards caution.
Mr Sunak and Mr Hunt have publicly stated their determination to halve inflation this year — the first of five well-publicized promises by the Prime Minister during his time in office.
It is for this reason. Back in the summer, a senior No 10 figure rejected any idea of Hunt being sacked as chancellor.
A government source said that “ The Prime Minister and the Chancellor are working very closely on the Autumn Statement.” Photo: STEPHAN RUSSO/AFP/Getty Images
This argument, so the argument goes, would effectively be an admission that Mr Sunak's economic plan was either poorly conceived or poorly executed.
This argument may well stand. The autumn statement, which is less than a month away, is not seen either in Downing Street or as a moment for large-scale tax cuts.
Instead, continued decline in inflation will remain a central part of the narrative that Mr Hunt has been integral to delivering. This logic suggests that a transition in the next four weeks is unlikely.
What happens next? The first year of Sunak's premiership, who celebrates his first birthday on Wednesday, has been about putting out the fires Ms Truss inherited in the economy, small courts and the NHS.
Strategy for year two: as the general election due to take place in January 2025 at the latest, Mr Sunak will take riskier steps in an attempt to change electoral dynamics.
It has already begun. This autumn, Mr Sunak changed the UK's approach to net zero and abandoned stage two of HS2 as part of a campaign to be seen as a candidate for «change».
A similar gear shift could occur on economic issues. . . If reducing inflation was this year's top economic goal, then avoiding a projected recession could be the goal for 2024.
Is Hunt the man to make the change?
Privately, figures at the top of the party admit they need to re-motivate Tory voters if they are to pull off a shock election victory, and are determined to draw a dividing line with Labor on tax cuts if public finances allow.
Increasing the income tax threshold by 40 percent is a leading candidate, as The Telegraph recently reported, as is abolishing inheritance tax.
Next spring's budget is seen as the earliest such option. it would be possible to announce a move. This leads to another question: will Mr. Hunt be the best person to pull off the turnaround?
Some Tories calling for tax cuts earlier than No 10 want them say no. Take this line from a former Tory cabinet minister, who is still an MP, last Friday after the by-election defeats. «Rishi must begin to wonder, in the current circumstances, whether Hunt's timid position is what we need,» the Conservative MP said. «We need a more pirate-like chancellor.»
This move may never happen. Mr Sunak values loyalty among those on his side, and this is underlined by the fact that his inner circle at No. 10 is much the same as at No. 11.
This leads to another possibility. Could Mr Hunt himself be putting an end to his parliamentary career? Absolutely not, says his team, but that alone cannot end the speculation.
Other senior Cabinet ministers in this long Conservative reign in government since 2010 are leaving the stage left and resigning next year elections — Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Ben Wallace.
Mr Hunt believed his cabinet career was over when Liz Truss replaced Boris Johnson. He ran for the Conservative leadership a second time against Ms Truss and lost.
Mr Hunt now faces an uphill battle to remain an MP at all. At the 2019 election he won his seat of South West Surrey with a majority of 8,817 votes.
The seat he is now contesting after the boundary changes, the newly formed Godalming and Ash party, has a majority of several thousand votes more. , according to one Conservative Party source.
Even so, the election math from this point in the cycle looks grim. The Tories lost the by-election last week with a majority of 19,634 to 24,664 votes.
The looming threat of a «Portillo moment» when the Tory bigwig was ousted by voters in the 1997 rout of New Labor. , was quoted by these senior Conservatives in the Observer article.
The public message coming from behind doors No. 10 and No. 11 Downing Street is categorical: Mr Hunt remains chancellor and fights the next election.
But a year, and even more so a day, is a long time in politics.
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