The ruble was left without support after the end of the tax period. By the end of the week, the Russian currency was already below Monday's levels. On May 31, trading closed at 90 rubles per dollar. Before that, the ruble had been strengthening almost continuously for more than a month. From April 16 to May 28, the American currency lost almost 6 rubles on the Moscow Exchange and was trading at 88.5 rubles on Tuesday.
What caused the rebound at the end of the week? And will the ruble weaken further? Valery Weisberg, Director of the Analytical Department of the investment company Region, believes that there were few reasons for the ruble's fall in early June: “This movement was most likely associated with the closing of short positions, because the ruble was unable to overcome the 88.2 ruble mark and, accordingly, not go further to 87.5 rubles.
It is quite possible that with the end of the tax period, players who opened short positions chose to take profits. This brought the rate above 90 rubles. The expectation that the key rate may be raised as early as June 7 will put some pressure on the dollar. The ruble has risen above 90 rubles, but may well go lower in the coming week. At the same time, the dollar exchange rate may return to a level even below 89 rubles. on the horizon of three to four weeks.
Now the ruble is in approximately the same positions as in early January. Over the year, the Russian currency added more than 10% to the American currency. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, by December the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange may exceed 98 rubles, and in 2025 it will continue to weaken. Economists surveyed by the Central Bank believe that this year the average exchange rate of the American currency will almost reach 93 rubles. Much will depend on the sanctions pressure on financial flows associated with Russia, says economist Sergei Khestanov: “Currently, there are quite serious difficulties with carrying out both export and import payments. This significantly affects the balance of supply and demand for currency, and, as a consequence, the exchange rate.
But taking into account the fact that the dynamics of settlements strongly depend, among other things, on relations between countries, it is possible that in the foreseeable future this ratio may change noticeably. If we assume that the trends that have been forming since the beginning of the year will continue, a scenario in which the ruble will weaken moderately by the end of the year looks more likely.
The degree of this weakening will depend to a large extent on the ratio of difficulties in carrying out payments for exporters and importers. Most likely, pressure on Russia's trading partners will increase. And they will either slightly reduce the volume of cooperation or demand a larger discount in order to continue it.”
Since the beginning of 2024, the situation with money transfers to China for imports has become sharply more complicated. Market participants told Kommersant FM that transactions were either not accepted or were delayed for weeks or even months. Because of this, Russian companies began to resort to the services of intermediaries from the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and other countries, Reuters reported.
In mid-May, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China. He stated that he is aware of problems with calculations, but they can be solved, including “at the state level.”
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