When airlines pledged to cut carbon emissions in 2021, executives were confident that surviving Covid would enable them to achieve the energy transition .< /p>
But three years on, bosses are starting to worry.
Progress towards the agreed target of net-zero emissions by 2050 is moving at a snail's pace, and the production of clean aviation fuel (SAF) needed to make the transition, falls far short of the required levels.
Last year, Virgin Atlantic flew the world's first trans-Atlantic flight on 100 SAF-powered PCs to demonstrate the fuel's viability.
However, Holly Boyd-Boland, Virgin's vice-president of corporate development, told The Telegraph: “It is clear that SAF will not be enough to achieve our goal of Net Zero 2050.
“Production will need to increase by 80 or 100 times to achieve 10% SAF by 2030, which requires urgent government action. action.”
The SAF shortage and how to solve it will be a major topic of discussion at IATA's annual meeting in Dubai, which starts on Monday and will be attended by hundreds of airline executives, as well as representatives from Airbus, Boeing and other manufacturers.
SAF – cleared a mixture of waste oils, animal fats and corn ethanol – today accounts for just 0.2% of jet fuel use, but UK airlines must increase this to 10% by the end of the decade to meet government mandates.
Outside Britain, the sector as a whole is set to reach net zero by mid-century following a 2021 target from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Net zero achievements in other industries are causing concern. that airlines are quickly becoming outsiders, making them easy targets for climate change protesters, governments and regulators.
Demand for electric vehicles may have slowed, but the technology will become much more accessible as Chinese brands enter the market. Meanwhile, the energy sector is moving away from coal and expanding production of wind, solar and nuclear power, at least in Western economies.
Aviation, by contrast, is at least a decade away from producing a short-range hydrogen engine. carrier aircraft, and long-haul flights are likely to rely on fossil fuels well into the second half of the century if SAF fails to replace kerosene.
The airline industry is becoming an increasingly easy target for climate change protesters such as Greta Thunberg (fourth from right). Photo: Mark Kerrison/Getty Images
“The industry is facing increasing challenges, particularly in Europe,” says John Strickland, director of aviation. consultant and former network planner at British Airways.
“It must shout about its value in a way that resonates, whether it is its economic contribution or the importance of interacting with other cultures.”
Without meaningful changes, some fear that young, environmentally conscious travelers will shun air travel and opt for more climate-friendly options such as rail. Activists like Greta Thunberg have created the Flight Shame movement, which highlights the carbon footprint of air travel and tries to get people to look for alternative ways to travel.
Strickland says: “Airline executives have children and grandchildren and they understand people's feelings. However, in some circles the industry is portrayed as public enemy number one, as if it has no real vested interest in the future.
“The fact is that airlines don't make airplanes, they don't make engines, and they SAF is not being finalized. So you can understand if they are annoyed.”
Virgin Atlantic chief executive Shai Weiss has been one of the most vocal critics of the oil industry and governments for failing to help airlines keep up with their obligations.
Rolls-Royce boss Tufan Erginbilgic insists engine makers are moving as fast as possible to create a new generation of zero-emission engines. The company's proposed Ultrafan model will burn 10 percent less fuel than its cleanest engine to date, and all of its turbines are capable of using 100 percent SAF.
However, Erginbilgic warns that it is virtually impossible to obtain the required amount of SAF from biostocks impossible. Governments and energy companies should focus more on producing synthetic SAF using “green hydrogen” extracted from water through an electrolysis process, says Rolls boss.
Rolls-Royce boss Tufan Erginbilgic warns that obtaining the required amount of SAF from biostockpiles is virtually impossible. Photo: REUTERS/Umit Bektas
This could be produced by renewable electricity or modular nuclear reactors, for which Rolls-Royce is seeking government support.
Even if the required amount of SAF were available, Mr Weiss warned last month that fares for return flights to New York would rise by 6%, or £40, based on current prices. currently six times higher than kerosene.
A price stabilization mechanism will not be introduced in the UK until 2026, delaying significant SAF production and frustrating executives.
Energy concerns The transition comes just as carriers prepare for what is expected to be a record-breaking summer for travel. But just as vacationers plan to return to work before their vacation is over, executives are already concentrating on the tasks ahead.
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