Playing Russian roulette with the climate: the dates when the temperature on Earth will become prohibitive have been announced

The UN Secretary-General drew public attention to the increasing frequency of weather disasters

According to a new analysis of temperature data, over the past 12 months, global warming has exceeded the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees. “The battle to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees will be won or lost in the 2020s,” warns UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

< span class="article__picture-author" itemprop="author">Photo: Global Look Press

According to Copernicus, the EU's climate monitoring service, average global temperatures from June 2023 to May 2024 were 1.63 degrees above the «pre-industrial» baseline of 1850-1900.

Let's be clear: short-term annual warming is not the same as global warming, which has remained consistently above the 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial average that global climate negotiations are trying to avoid.

Temperatures continue to rise in line with carbon dioxide emissions from human activities, and the importance of continued efforts to reduce them.

“It is shocking, but not surprising, that we have reached this 12-month milestone,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. “While this streak of record months will eventually be broken, the general signs of climate change remain and there is no sign of this trend changing.”

The World Meteorological Organization warns that temperatures will also exceed 1.5 degrees or rise further in at least one of the next five calendar years. The organization also concluded that as greenhouse gas emissions return to pre-COVID-19 levels, average surface temperatures between 2024 and 2028 are projected to be 1.1 to 1.9 degrees higher than average for 1850–1900.

They estimate there is an 86% chance that at least one of the next five years will be warmer than 2023, the previous warmest year on record observations in the world.

“We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

The warning came as officials gathered in Bonn to receive an update on the progress of international climate talks ahead of the COP 29 global climate summit in Baku in November 2024.

According to Copernicus, average global temperatures in May 2024 were the warmest on record. The month was 0.65 degrees warmer than the average May from 1991 to 2020. May 2024 also marked the 12th consecutive month with the highest average temperatures on record globally.

Despite agreements reached at COP28 in Dubai to triple global renewable energy output by 2030, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that most countries have not yet achieved that target.

The IEA estimates that around 8,000 watts of renewable energy will be installed worldwide by the end of the decade. Wind and solar projects in China alone account for 3,180 GW of the total.