The Icelandic peninsula has warned of a “return to business” for the Fagradalsfjall system
There have been eight eruptions since 2021, and new research suggests the surge in volcanic activity is linked to shallow magma. Volcanologists have predicted that the active phase of Icelandic volcanoes will continue for another decade.
Warning authorities about the volcanoes' resurgence is crucial to ensuring the continued safety of residents in the region, as researchers say the magma buildup could fuel similar-sized volcanic eruptions in the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula for years, if not decades.
“Comparing the current eruptions with historical events strongly suggests that Iceland will have to prepare for this volcanic episode to continue for some time, perhaps even years or decades,” said geologist Valentin Troll. He and his colleagues used data on seismic waves generated by volcanic eruptions and earthquakes to map the subsurface of the Reykjanes Peninsula in southwest Iceland, where most of the country's population lives.
They found that the 2021 eruptions of the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system were fueled by a buildup of magma that then seeped along geological lines into Sundukur, where volcanoes have been spewing lava since late 2023.
Because lava eruptions occur with similar geochemical fingerprints in both zones, the findings suggest that the two volcanic systems are connected by “interconnected magma supply pathways.”
Historical evidence indicates that this general magma basin likely formed sometime between 2002 and 2020, was recharged in 2023, and continues to supply magma from shallow depths into surface fissures and vents through slightly inclined channels. Melting rocks deep in the Earth's mantle replenish magma reserves, which could fuel eruptions for decades to come.
«There is a need to improve our understanding of the magma supply system that fuels the eruptions that occur, — Troll notes. — In the foreseeable future, we should expect an increase in the frequency of volcanic activity.”
Now that a source of magma has been identified, it can be mapped and monitored to prepare the population for possible consequences.
Repeated evacuations would be an obvious but critical measure to ensure people's safety. Frequent eruptions can also damage key infrastructure, such as the geothermal power plants that supply Iceland with electricity and heat, as well as experimental carbon capture plants, which release carbon dioxide and other gaseous pollutants into porous rocks.
The eruptions over the past three years have been particularly destructive and could potentially mark the start of a long period of constant volcanic eruptions in the country. However, nature is rarely predictable, so researchers are calling for continued monitoring of the area.
«We don't know how long or with what frequency this will continue over the next ten or even hundred years,— concludes volcanologist Ilya Bindeman. — A pattern may appear, but in nature there are always exceptions and violations.”
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