The Russian currency will start the new week with strengthening. On July 12, quotations of major world currencies against the ruble decreased. After the introduction of sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, the dollar has firmly established itself around the 87 mark and risks continuing to lose ground, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors are sure. At the same time, the government is taking steps to weaken the national currency. Earlier, the Cabinet of Ministers for the second time in a month lowered the threshold for the mandatory sale of proceeds for exporters from 60% to 40%. This decision was made “taking into account the stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and the achievement of a sufficient level of foreign exchange liquidity.”
However, the market will not immediately feel the effect of this measure, analysts believe. “Kommersant FM” collected their forecasts for the ruble exchange rate in the short term.
Member of the board of the Financial Group Finam Dmitry Lesnov: “The Russian budget is drawn up with an exchange rate of approximately 90 rubles. and the price of oil is about $80 per barrel. With the new decision, less foreign exchange earnings will flow into Russia, less of it will now be sold on the over-the-counter market, and, accordingly, there will be less pressure towards strengthening the Russian ruble. As a rule, there is a certain lag of several weeks. After the decision is made and the immediate effect is made, we expect that, perhaps by the end of July, these measures will already be taken into account, and we expect stabilization in the 86-90 corridor.”
Managing Director investment company «Ivolga Capital» Dmitry Alexandrov: “Indeed, the ruble has probably been too strong lately. We see that the financial authorities are now taking measures to weaken the national currency exchange rate. To be honest, I’m not sure that this will be an effective measure; after all, the ruble is mainly strengthening now due to fundamentally high energy prices and, secondly, due to a set of measures taken by the Central Bank to combat inflation. I would expect it to remain strong, it seems to me that the level is 80-85 rubles. per dollar — these are sufficient realistic numbers that we can see.»
Director of Financial Markets and Macroeconomics Analysis at Alfa Capital Management Company Vladimir Bragin: “In fact, without a strong ruble it will be very difficult to achieve a reduction in inflation, and without it, a reduction in the Central Bank’s key rate. The regulator notes that the most important cause of inflation is the gap between demand and the ability of the economy to satisfy it. In this case, the question arises: why not then allow these savings to be closed through, for example, cheap imports? We will probably return to the range that we had before the last sanctions, we will see later.”
Exporters working in the fuel and energy complex, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, chemical and forestry industries, and grain farming are also required to sell their foreign currency earnings. Evgeny Mironyuk, an expert at BCS World of Investments, does not rule out that the threshold for selling foreign currency earnings will have to be tightened again by the end of the year, for example, if the situation on the energy market worsens: “Now the ruble has stabilized again, there is no need to introduce such strict measures. They are good in the short term, when it is necessary to urgently stabilize the exchange rate and prevent panic among legal entities and individuals when they acquire significant volumes of friendly or unfriendly currency.
We note the positive impact of the decision on companies that are the main exporters — oil and gas, metallurgical, fertilizer producers, and certain types of engineering products. They will receive their benefits. Most likely, the position here will remain flexible.
Of course, moments of weakening of the ruble cannot be ruled out if the balance of payments again becomes unfavorable, imports increase, and export revenues fall, for example, due to lower energy prices or other factors .
In this case, a situation cannot be ruled out in which the government will have to again tighten the requirements for the mandatory repatriation of foreign currency earnings. But, most likely, the threshold of 40% of sales will remain in the medium term.”
President Vladimir Putin issued a decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings in October 2023. Then the dollar exceeded the psychological mark of 100 rubles. In April, the measure was immediately extended for a year. The Central Bank reported that in June, net sales of 29 companies among the country's largest exporters exceeded $14.5 billion.
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