There may not be enough foreign currency on the over-the-counter market for everyone if private investors are allowed to access it. This is due to the fact that Russian banks have limited movement of dollars and euros. Therefore, transactions may be delayed or even cancelled, some Kommersant FM sources believe. Nevertheless, several large brokers, including Finam and BCS Mir Investitsii, have already announced that they will soon provide their clients with access to the over-the-counter currency market. Will there be demand? And how can this service work? Vladislav Viktorov looked into it.
As the market participants themselves say, allowing individuals to participate in over-the-counter trading will allow citizens to buy dollars and euros using the same scheme as before the sanctions against the Moscow Exchange were introduced. Even the interface will remain familiar — with «glasses» that will be filled with applications from buyers and sellers. The application form will also not change. They will need to indicate the volume and price of the currency for purchase or sale. At the same time, the over-the-counter rate will be more favorable than the official one.
And Kommersant FM's interlocutors took the brokers' plans positively. According to Ilya Korovin, Chairman of the National Union of Private Traders and Investors in Financial Markets, this will lead to currency fluctuations becoming smoother: «The turnover will be more or less the same if as many brokers as possible connect to the system. But for now, Finam and BCS will be enough to make a more or less filled «glass». It will also be better for institutional traders and legal entities, because «physicals» usually provide liquidity.
In between large, rare transactions by legal entities, individuals make many, many small ones, and in this way they make the chart smoother and more liquid, representative for everyone.»
Investors will be able to store currency, as before, in their brokerage accounts. And if desired, it can be taken abroad. But you won’t be able to cash out due to restrictions that have been in effect since 2022. The brokers themselves expect that legal entities that carry out foreign trade transactions will also show demand for the service. Although independent expert on financial markets Alexey Bushuev doubts this:
«This is the same Forex, when you set the quotes yourself, and they can have different spreads — market, very wide. You can even give leverage to the client. But what is the nature of this demand? This is the main question. That is, is this speculation or real calculations? And who will shine this business under real calculations? And foreign trade operations — now everything is «two plus two is four, but you can negotiate.»
Rather, this is an opportunity for brokers to retain their current clientele.»
The main difference from exchange trading will be that the National Clearing Center will not participate in the settlements. Transactions will be conducted based on the limits established between buyers and sellers. Thus, it is the banks that become the main suppliers of currency. But, as noted by a representative of the broker «Finam», now the movement of dollars and euros in Russian financial institutions is «severely limited». And this can become a problem, as well as counterparty risk, notes Dmitry Alexandrov, Managing Director of the investment company «Ivolga Capital»:
«There are difficulties with calculations: the currency needs to be transferred from one account to another — at the present time this is a non-trivial operation. Therefore, it is in the calculation of transactions that time lags may arise, perhaps some transactions will simply not be calculated and will be cancelled. The main risk in this scheme is the counterparty risk. If banks set limits carefully, then the risks should not be realized in the foreseeable future. But in reality, during periods of volatility, which we have observed in recent years, such scenarios can be realized. In fact, this is the risk of bankruptcy of the bank, which is the second party to the transaction.»
But retail investors are unlikely to be interested in how the broker will close these transactions, say Kommersant FM's interlocutors. Much more important is that they again have a protective instrument against the possible devaluation of the ruble. It is for this purpose that investors will buy dollars and euros, brokers are sure, since speculating on the over-the-counter market is much more difficult.
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