A Palestinian woman cries in the garden of Ahly Arab Hospital Photo: Anadolu Agency
Hamas, the Islamist terrorist group that controls the Gaza Strip, immediately blamed the Israeli airstrike in the explosion at al-Ahly al-Arabi hospital on Tuesday evening.
Israeli officials soon responded with counterclaims that a missile fired by Islamic Jihad militants had soon failed. was instead responsible for the launch.
Three major clues from open source intelligence investigations have revealed who may have been behind the explosion that killed hundreds of people.
Trajectory
Video footage of a rocket fired east from Gaza towards Israel shows that one of they caught fire in flight, fragments of which could shower the ground below.
Initial reports suggested the missile may have been shot down by Israel's Iron Dome air defense system.
But weapons experts say the video clips appear to it appears to show a failure of the rocket, which could have caused some of its parts to fall out of service. sky.
The hospital is located between the suspected missile launch area and the Israeli border.
Fabian Hoffman, an expert in defense and missile technology at the University of Oslo, said that “a Hamas rocket that had some kind of systematic error that caused it fell on the hospital» was «the most plausible explanation at this time.»
Sound of impact
Some commentators believe that the noise made by the projectile as it fell from the sky and hit the ground did not match the sound of an Israeli missile.
Justin Bronk, a leading aviation expert at the Rusi think tank, said that in the video footage, posted online, the object didn't sound powerful enough.
He also believes the explosion on the ground sounded like a fireball, likely caused by part of the rock holding the fuel exploding on impact.
“The sound of the flying projectile sounds like it is energized[ed], and the visible footage of the explosion looks more like gunpowder fire than a powerful detonation,” wrote Mr. -n Bronk on Twitter.
Hamas typically makes rockets out of scrap materials because of the blockade that has prevented military supplies from reaching Gaza.
Mr. Hoffmann suggested that the rocket's warhead may not have exploded in the hospital parking lot but was caused by shrapnel and rocket fuel.
Aftermath
Images of the hospital car park that bore the brunt of the impact revealed only three vehicles showing signs of severe structural damage from the impact rather than subsequent fire.
One of them was overturned by the blast wave, and the rest were crushed and thrown not far from the parked cars. exposure positions.
Nearby vehicles were charred, the damage was consistent with a fire that could have occurred due to fuel ignition in nearby vehicles.
“This is the most visible ground damage, which, if this were the impact point of the spent munition, would mean that it is a fairly small payload,” Eliot Higgins, founder of Bellingcat, a leading open source investigative agency.
< p>Nathan Ruser, a researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, tweeted: «In my opinion, the photos of the scene are inconsistent with the airstrike and claims that more than 500 people were killed.»
Within 10 meters of the impact site, most vehicles were undamaged or structurally unaffected by the incoming munitions.
Damage was also minimal to the nearby hospital building, which is located approximately 20 meters from the impact site.
p>The powerful bomb dropped by the Israeli Air Force will most likely have an explosion radius of about 370 meters and a kill zone of up to 33 meters.
Drone footage released by the Israeli military and analyzed by Mr Ruser showed limited damage to tiles on the hospital roof.
The researcher added : «It would correspond to an object that disintegrated in the air,» although he warned that the damage could have been done earlier.
Fog of War
Western leaders were careful to lay blame in the immediate aftermath.
Rishi Sunak, the prime minister, warned MPs on Wednesday not to “rush to judgment” over responsibility.
Charles Michel, president of the European Council, earlier said that “ It is «critical that all the facts surrounding this incident be thoroughly investigated.» However, US President Joe Biden was prepared to publicly blame «the other team, not you» when he landed in Israel on Wednesday .< /p>
Any investigation into the explosion is likely to be hampered by problems with access to the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip.
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