Who is fighting in Ethiopia?
The conflict pits Ethiopian government forces and allied militia against troops loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which is the ruling party of the Tigray region. Ethiopia’s prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, launched military operations in Tigray on 4 November after he accused local authorities of attacking a military camp and attempting to loot military assets. The TPLF denies the charge and has accused Abiy of concocting the story to justify the offensive.
Where is Tigray?
The region is in the mountainous north-west corner of Ethiopia, and borders Eritrea and Sudan. There are about 7 million inhabitants, out of a total Ethiopian population of 110 million, but the region has played an outsize role in the country’s recent history.
What do the two sides say?
Each has very different narratives. In general terms, the Tigrayan leadership claim Abiy is an authoritarian bent on centralising power away from the regions, which enjoy a significant degree of autonomy under the constitution. The prime minister and his supporters say the Tigrayan leadership are hardliners who threaten the cohesion of the country and want to take power.
Analysts say the confrontation could have been avoided. The TPLF dominated Ethiopia’s governing coalition for decades before Abiy came to power in 2018 and pushed through widespread changes designed to open up the media and the economy, but which also stirred ethnic tensions.
Tigrayan leaders complain of being unfairly targeted in corruption prosecutions, purged from top positions and generally blamed for the country’s problems. The postponement of national elections owing to the Covid-19 pandemic aggravated the dispute, and when parliamentarians in Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital, voted to extend officials’ mandates, Tigrayan leaders went ahead with regional elections in September that Abiy’s government deemed illegal.
How bad is the fighting?
With reporters banned from the combat zone and communications largely cut, it is difficult to know. There have been air raids and artillery fire across a wide area, forcing tens of thousands of peopleto flee. Many reported fierce clashes.
Ethiopian government forces appear to be making some headway with twin advances along the main road to Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital, and the Sudanese border towards the strategic town of Humera. There have also been reports of atrocities targeting civilians by both sides.
Military offensives in Ethiopia
How long could it last?
A long time. The Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF) has about 140,000 personnel and plenty of experience from fighting Islamist militants in Somalia and rebel groups in border regions, plus a two-decade border standoff with Eritrea.
But many senior officers were Tigrayan, and much of the ENDF’s most powerful weaponry is based in Tigray. Tigrayans also have a formidable history of martial accomplishments. They spearheaded the rebel march to Addis Ababa that ousted a brutal Marxist dictatorship in 1991 and bore the brunt of a 1998-2000 war with Eritrea, during which hundreds of thousands of people were killed. Their region is mountainous and rough terrain, ideal for guerilla-type warfare with local knowledge and support.
So what happens next?
The big worry is that the conflict destabilises Ethiopia, which is already riven with ethnic tensions, and draws in regional powers. Either development could be hugely detrimental to one of the most fragile regions in Africa. Eritrea is already involved in the conflict, with the TPLF firing missiles at the Eritrean capital, Asmara, and troop movements reported on its border with Tigray.
Most analysts believe Sudan, which is in the middle of its own democratic transition, will support Abiy. But there is always the prospect of the conflict getting out of control and – especially if powers in the Gulf or further afield become involved – turning part or all of Ethiopia into a “Libya in east Africa”, as one expert put it.
No hopes of a negotiated ceasefire?
Not for the moment. Abiy, who won a Nobel prize last year for ending hostilities with Eritrea, seems set on forcing the TPLF leadership out of power, and even out of Tigray and Ethiopia altogether. Ethiopian government officials have said that to negotiate would be to “incentivise impunity”.
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