England and Wales had highest number of excess deaths in Europe’s first pandemic wave, experts say

A pandemic lockdown warning sign is displayed to shoppers in Manchester

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England and Wales recorded the highest number of excess deaths during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic of 21 major industrialised nations, new analysis shows.

Approximately 57,300 more people died than would have been expected between mid-February and the end of May, compared to 48,700 in Italy, and 45,800 in Spain.

Scientists say the high total of excess deaths in England and Wales could be down to a failure to enter lockdown sooner.

They said the Government’s poorly performing NHS Test and Trace system and widespread pre-existing health conditions are also likely to have played a part.

At the start of the crisis, the Government deflected criticism about the mounting death toll in hospitals, private residences and care homes by saying that only a longer-term comparison of deaths against the historical average would provide a fair insight into the country’s performance.

Published in the weekly scientific journal, Nature, the new study found across 21 comparable nations – excluding Germany and the US – there were 260,000 excess deaths.

These reflect both the direct and indirect effects of the coronavirus, including the unintended effects of lockdown.

England and Wales accounted for the single largest proportion of this total – 28 per cent – followed by Italy on 24 per cent, then Spain on 22 per cent.

Dr Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, who co-authored the paper at Imperial College London, said: “Our research suggests a number of factors may influence why some countries had higher numbers of deaths than others.

“Countries with comprehensive and effective community-based testing and contact-tracing programmes, or those without such systems but who implemented early and effective lockdowns, had lower death tolls during the first wave.

“As we enter the second wave, test and trace programmes, and supporting people who need to isolate, are our most important lever to minimise the impact of the pandemic on direct Covid-19 deaths and deaths from other conditions.

“Such programmes also reduce the need for further prolonged lockdowns.”

England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest increase in mortality, with nearly 100 excess deaths per 100,000 people.

According to the researchers, this is an increase of 37 per cent for England and Wales and 38 per cent for Spain, when compared to how many deaths would have been expected without the pandemic.

In Scotland, the excess death deaths rate was 84 per 100,000 people during the first wave, which is a 28 per cent increase from average expected deaths.

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Dr Vasilis Kontis, lead author of the research from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, said: “The pandemic has affected people’s lives and health in so many ways.

"For instance, some people may have had an operation or treatment delayed, or might have lost the support they need with their day to day medical needs.

“Taking these factors into account, looking at deaths from Covid-19 infection alone is too limited; looking at deaths from all causes allows us to better understand how well countries handled the pandemic, and how well they have supported their people during lockdown measures.”

The research team was able to use their findings to group the countries into four categories, depending on each country’s overall death toll during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The first group were those that avoided a detectable rise in deaths, and included Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland.

The second and third groups of countries experienced a low to medium effect of the pandemic. The low-impact group included Austria, Switzerland and Portugal, while the medium-impact group included France, the Netherlands and Sweden.

The fourth group, which experienced the highest number of deaths from any disease in the study period, consisted of Belgium, Italy, Scotland, Spain and England and Wales.