Why Pennsylvania is so important in the 2020 election

A cardboard cutout of Scranton's own Joe Biden is seen in a local convenience shop

Credit: ERIC BARADAT /AFP

Pennsylvania was the scene of an improbable Donald Trump win over Hillary Clinton in 2016. It had voted Democrat every year since 1992 until that point. 

Mr Trump staged a stunning comeback. He was trailing by six points just a few days prior to the election, yet somehow swung things in his favour. 

He won by the narrowest of margins, just 0.7 per cent over Hillary Clinton. The state’s 20 Electoral College votes were key in carrying him to the White House.

The state has a demographic balance of rural, suburban and urban voters.

It was brought up repeatedly by both candidates during the final presidential debate, as both men sought to state their claim. Mr Trump spoke directly to Pennsylvania voters during an exchange on the environment, in which he said Mr Biden wants to “destroy” the oil industry, a key provider of local jobs.

“Will you remember that, Pennsylvania?” he said directly to the camera.

Trump voter base 2016 v Clinton

The latest poll from the Keystone state, conducted by Civiqs on October 26th, has Joe Biden ahead 52-46. The average poll puts Mr Biden ahead by somewhere between five and seven points.

Both men have made multiple stops to the state in the run-in, with a combined 10 appearances in September. "The candidates have been virtually living here," Terry Madonna, a pollster and political analyst at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, told USA Today. "That tells you how important Pennsylvania is."

Pennsylvania is also Mr Biden’s home state. The 77-year-old Democrat was born in Scranton, a small town about two hours north of Philadelphia. Though he left as a child and represented Delaware as a senator for his entire career in Congress, Mr Biden’s roots boost his chances to win here.

College-educated, suburban white voters are expected to be key, and this provides Mr Biden with an advantage. The coronavirus pandemic is a key issue for this demographic, particularly in Pennsylvania, which has the eighth highest death toll for any state, at 8,745.

The traditional support base for the Democrats in the state has been blue-collar, working class voters. Mr Biden comes from a working-class background and he hopes that this will endear him to the voters who abandoned the party for Mr Trump in 2016. 

Statistical modelling by FiveThirtyEight shows that Pennsylvania is the state that is most likely to put Mr Biden over the top and give him the presidency.