Arizona 2020 election results: Biden on track to win battleground state

Supporters of Donald Trump watch the television to see the numbers coming in at the Cochise County Republican Headquarters in Sierra Vista, Arizona 

Credit: AFP

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Joe Biden is already celebrating his strong performance in Arizona. 

The Grand Canyon state is traditionally Republican but for Democrats the early results are looking good – which doesn’t mean much. Early votes, counted ahead of time, were always going to skew blue.

Imagine a football match where one team dominates the first half, but then loses energy in the second. The question then is whether that early lead is big enough to withstand erosion.

Republican Martha McSally was trying to hold off Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut.

Ms McSally a former fighter pilot, lost a 2018 Senate election but was appointed to fill Senator John McCain’s seat. 

Fox News has projected Biden will win Arizona, giving him a potential path to victory with the "blue wall" states.

Demographic changes

Results in Arizona hinge on Maricopa County, the fourth most-populous county in the nation with 4.5 million residents, including 1.4 million Hispanics.

The county voted narrowly for Donald Trump in 2016. But its demographics and politics have shifted the past four years. Mr Biden was leading Mr Trump 49 per cent to 47 per cent in Arizona in a Reuters Ipsos poll conducted Oct. 27-Nov 1.

Arizona’s 11 electoral votes could be key to Mr Biden’s path to victory, and Democratic strategists hope higher Latino turnout will help shift the state in his favour.

Early voting

Maricopans participated in early voting in record numbers. Before Monday, the county had processed 1.66 million ballots, surpassing the 1.6 million total cast in the 2016 election, said Megan Gilbertson, communications director for the Maricopa County Elections Department.

While Maricopa gave most of its votes to Mr Trump in 2016, it ejected Republican Sheriff Joe Arpaio, an immigration hardliner whom Mr Trump pardoned for ignoring a court order to stop racially profiling Latinos. The county has since helped elect people like Krysten Sinema, the first Democratic Arizona senator in three decades, to national office.

What issues are at play?

Arizona’s historically harsh treatment of immigrants and passage of legislation like SB1070, a 2010 law that codified several anti-immigrant measures, fostered strong community organising roots that activists hope will pay off in this election.

Arizona appears to also have voted to legalise cannabis, joining other western states such as California.

While Arizonans await more decisive numbers in national races — and with some still waiting in line — AP has called the state’s marijuana referendum for Yes.

The new law would set up a licensing system for legal weed vendors, allowing sales as soon as March. Those convicted under the old laws would be given the chance to expunge their records.

When is a result likely?

Results from some races are not likely to be known until after Election Day, due to this year’s unprecedented volume of mail-in ballots and possible runoff elections in four races.

Delayed results could occur in Arizona and Maine, where Democrats are strongly favoured to flip Republican seats.