Democrats are expected to expand their majority in the House of Representatives by winning several election races on Tuesday night, an expansion that would build on Democrats’ impressive wins in the 2018 midterm elections, when they gained 41 House seats.
The Cook Political Report, which provides non-partisan election and political analysis, predicted on Monday that Democrats will gain between 10 and 15 seats in the House, which has 435 members. “A combination of President Trump’s unpopularity in the suburbs, a fundraising disadvantage, and 32 open seats for the GOP to defend (to Democrats’ dozen) has weighed down Republicans’ prospects,” said David Wasserman, of Cook Political Report.
Q&A How will the Guardian report US election results?
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Though most people will be likely watching the results of the race for the White House, there are more than 7,000 elections taking place across the US on Tuesday 3 November.
In the age of disinformation, it is more important than ever that media outlets report election results as clearly and transparently as possible.
The Guardian will be using data collected and analysed by the Associated Press (AP) as the source for when we will call election results for the presidency, Senate, House races and others. AP has a team of thousands of specialists and correspondents across America, who have trusted relationships with local officials. This will guide their data-led assessment of when it’s time to call a race.
There are a number of other highly reputable election «decision desks» in US media. They may call races earlier than AP. While the Guardian will report this is happening, we will rely on AP’s data to make our own final call.
Should any candidate declare victory prematurely, we will report this claim, but make clear that it is not valid. The only measure of victory is a complete count of all outstanding ballots.
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Democrats currently hold 232 seats, while Republicans have 197. There are five vacancies in the House, and one Libertarian-held seat, CNN said. The GOP would need 218 seats to gain control. Such an upset is exceedingly unlikely.
Across the country, Republican candidates are going after freshman Democrats who won in the 2018 midterms. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to land key GOP districts, USA Today explained. Texas, which is an overwhelmingly red state, is key to this battle. Under Wasserman’s analysis, there are six “vulnerable” Republican congressional seats in Texas.
Senate and House elections 2020: full results for Congress
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Representative Michael McCaul, whose district spans from Houston’s suburbs to Austin, is dealing with “real risk of defeat” against Democrat Mike Siegel. In the Dallas/Fort Worth suburban area, retiring Republican Representative Kenny Marchant’s seat now tips toward Democrat Candace Valenzuela, according to the Hill.
In Ohio, Democrats believe that a long-held Republican seat representing Cincinnati-area suburbs has become more competitive. While GOP representative Steve Chabot is vying for his 13th term, Democrats hope that their candidate, healthcare executive Kate Schroder, will draw voters who are concerned with health policy, per the Post.
A congressional race near Atlanta, Georgia, however, might test Democrats’ success in courting suburban voters. The district’s Republican representative, Rob Woodall, is retiring. Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux, who lost to Woodall in 2018, is the 2020 candidate against Republican nominee Rich McCormick. As the district remains conservative, the result will give insight into Democrats’ get-out-the-vote efforts in the state, the Washington Post reported.
Another key congressional race is in South Carolina, where Democrat Joe Cunningham is fighting to keep the seat he won over Republicans in 2018. Cunningham was the first Democrat to take a House seat from the GOP in South Carolina since 1986, and Republicans began eyeing Cunningham’s seat shortly after he was elected as part of their plan to retake the House in 2020.
This South Carolina contest has become the most expensive US House race in state history. Cunningham’s fundraising totals $6m, while his Republican opponent, state representative Nancy Mace, has raised more than $4m between the primary and general elections, AP notes.
In New Mexico, contests are testing Democrats’ hold on the state. Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, who represents southern New Mexico in Congress, is fighting to keep her seat in a historically Republican-leaning district.
The extremely close race – a rematch between Torres Small and her 2018 opponent, former Republican state representative Yvette Herrell – will depend on voter turnout, per AP. In 2018, Torres Small bested Herrell by less than 2% of the votes, New Mexico’s KRWG Public Media reported.
Another congressional race to watch is unfolding in the New York District covering Staten Island and southern Brooklyn. This is the only swing district in the overwhelmingly Democratic New York City. Max Rose, the Democratic incumbent, is squaring off against Republican state assembly member Nicole Malliotakis.
The bitter race has featured weeks of negative attack ads, with Malliotakis insisting she is the law-and-order candidate. This position, of course, is also touted by Trump – who won Staten Island in 2016. Trump is supporting Malliotakis in the race, according to AP.
Results from Indiana’s 5th district, an open-seat race that speaks to both parties’ fight for the suburbs, are slowly trickling in. This district, which covers suburban Indianapolis, marked a major victory for Trump in 2016 – with him beating Hillary Clinton by almost 12 points. With about 33% reporting, Democrat Christina Hale presently has 51.8% while her competitor, Republican Victoria Spartz, has 45.5%.
Virginia’s 5th district has also attracted attention as a potentially watershed toss-up. This area, which covers the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, is mostly rural. Trump won this region by 11 points in 2016, according to CNN.
In 2018, Republican Denver Riggleman won this district by approximately 6%.
Conflict within the GOP, however, has made a 2020 victory uncertain. Another Republican, Bob Good, beat Riggleman at a GOP convention earlier in 2020. Democrat Cameron Webb, a doctor, has campaigned extensively on health care amid the Covid-19 pandemic, CNN notes.
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