When will we know the US election result?

Donald Trump’s false claim to have already won the US presidential election while millions of votes remain to be counted has focused the spotlight once more on one of the big uncertainties of the 2020 race: when will we know the result?

It could take days, weeks or even months, depending on what happens.

What usually happens?

US presidential elections are not won by the national popular vote. The winner in each state collects its electoral college votes – and needs a total of 270 to take the White House.

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In most elections the result is clear – although not officially confirmed – by the end of the night. Major American media outlets “call” each state for one of the candidates. While not based on the final vote count, that projection is almost invariably accurate.

This means an accurate tally of electoral college votes can be made and a winner declared. In 2016, that happened at 2.30am in Washington when Trump reached the required 270.

Why is that not happening this time?

Mainly because of the Covid-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters – about 68% of the total, compared with 34% in 2016 – cast their ballots early, including by post.

Counting postal votes is slower because voter and witness signatures and addresses must be checked, and ballots smoothed out before being fed into counting machines.

Some states start that verification process long before election day, meaning the count itself can get under way as soon as polls close. Others, however, do not allow that.

Which states are we talking about?

The states that could decide this year’s race. Trump’s victories in Florida, Ohio and Texas have kept alive his hopes of re-election, but a key state, Arizona, has been called for Biden. If the Democratic challenger wins Michigan and Wisconsin, he could afford to lose Georgia and Pennsylvania and still win the election by two electoral college votes.

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Millions of postal votes still remain to be counted in these undecided states, and Democratic voters are known to have been more likely to vote by post than Republican ones.

In Georgia, where rules allowed absentee ballots to be pre-processed, several big counties reported long delays and sent counters home late on Tuesday evening rather than finish counting overnight.

Neither Wisconsin, where Biden is seen as having a narrow lead, or Pennsylvania, where Trump is ahead for now, allow postal votes to be prepared for counting before election day.

In Wisconsin, a call could be coming soon. In Pennsylvania – where the count started at 7am on election day – officials have said the process could take up to two days.

In Michigan, processing was allowed to begin 24 hours before election day in cities, but officials have said that was not soon enough to expect an early result either.

What else is complicating matters?

Roughly half of all states will accept postal votes that arrive after election day as long as they carry a postmark of no later than 3 November, so postal delays may mean some ballots are not processed until days later: Pennsylvania has said results will not be considered complete until the deadline of Friday.

There has also reportedly been an increase in the number of provisional ballots cast by people who asked for a postal vote but then decided to go to the polling station in person instead. These need careful checking to make sure no one has voted twice.

The really big unknown: a disputed result

In the 2000 race, the Democratic candidate, Al Gore, famously lost Florida by just more than 500 votes out of a total of nearly 6m, costing him the election. After a disputed recount and a supreme court ruling, George W Bush was declared the winner.

More than 300 lawsuits have already been filed over alleged breached of electoral law in the 2020 election, according to reports, and more can be expected over accusations of postal voting irregularities and changes to voting rules due to the pandemic.

Recounts have to be a strong possibility in one or more of the key swing states, and Trump said in his first post-election address late on Tuesday that he would be going to the supreme court in an attempt to stop ballot counting. While it is far from clear how feasible such a move would be, anything like it could delay a final vote for weeks.