Ethiopian government moves to replace leadership of Tigray region

The government of Ethiopia has moved to replace the leadership in the country’s northern Tigray region, where clashes between regional forces and those of the federal government have led to fears that the African power could slide into civil war.

The vote on Saturday by the upper house of parliament, the House of Federation, to set up an interim administration needs no further approval, and it gives the prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, the power to replace a Tigray leadership his government regards as illegal.

Ethiopia’s federal government said the interim administration will “appoint officials, ensure respect for rule of law, approve the region’s budget and facilitate the process of conducting elections”.

In a statement on Saturday, the Nobel peace prize-winning prime minister asserted that “criminal elements cannot escape the rule of law under the guise of seeking reconciliation and a call for dialogue”.

Experts and diplomats are watching in dismay as two heavily armed forces clash in one of the world’s most strategic yet vulnerable regions, the Horn of Africa. Observers warn that a civil war in Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country with 115 million people, could suck in or destabilise neighbours such as Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.

A statement posted on Saturday on the Facebook page of the Tigray government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, said it would win the “justified” war, and added that “a fighter will not negotiate with their enemies”.

“Tigray’s people are now armed with modern weaponry that could reach the seat of the infidels,” it added, an apparent reference to Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa. There was no reference to Saturday’s move by the federal government.

The conflict in Tigray is playing out between former allies in Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, who now see each other as illegal.

The TPLF had long dominated the country’s military and government before Abiy took office in 2018 and introduced sweeping political reforms that won him the Nobel. Those changes left the TPLF feeling marginalised, and it broke away last year when Abiy sought to turn the coalition into a single party called Prosperity.

Tensions rose in recent weeks as the Tigray region, objecting to the delay of the national election until next year and Abiy’s extended stay in office, held a local election in September that the federal government called illegal.

The fighting began early on Wednesday when Abiy accused the TPLF forces of attacking a military base in Tigray. In an escalation on Friday, Abiy announced that airstrikes in locations around the Tigray capital “completely destroyed rockets and other heavy weapons” and made a retaliatory attack impossible.

The military operations will continue, the prime minister said, and he warned the Tigray population: “In order to avoid unexpected peril, I advise that you limit group movements in cities.”

Communications are almost completely severed with the Tigray region, making it difficult to verify either side’s assertions and leading to pleas from aid and human rights groups to restore internet and phone links.

They also warn of a brewing humanitarian disaster if the conflict continues, which experts warn is likely if the two sides reject talks.