For observers around the world, and many worried Americans closer to home, the painful slowness of the count in the US election has become a subject of bafflement and concern.
While many – though far from all – countries manage to count their elections in the hours after polls close, the US election of 2020 has stretched into days of counting in a handful of fiercely contested swing states.
That is a source of concern mainly because though the eventual winner appears certain to be Democratic challenger Joe Biden, incumbent president Donald Trump has repeatedly and angrily lashed out, falsely claiming the election is being stolen. That has encouraged his supporters – including some bearing arms – to protest outside counting stations, raising the specter of civic unrest.
Here are your questions answered:
Why have some states not announced results?
Narrow election results mean a state cannot be called until all the votes have been counted. When any one state has a very close race, it means all those votes must be tallied – and that takes time. That is what is happening in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
Who calls the races?
In the end, local election officials certify the results. But there is no overall government body that regulates and coordinates the process on election night. So in practical terms each race is called before that by media organisations, such as the Associated Press (AP), which the Guardian follows, or the major television networks such as CNN, NBC or CBS. Each of these maintains a large “decision desk” of staffers who sift through the vote tallies as they come in and analyse data around demographics in order to make a call on a state. That is why many states are called long before their full votes are counted.
Why do calls differ?
Again, there is no central body making these decisions. It is media organisations and they use different methodologies to analyse the data. Naturally, they are staffed by different people who can – legitimately – come to different conclusions. Mostly, calls by the decision desks bunch pretty close together. But not always – and not in 2020.
Why are the media reporting different US election results?
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This time Fox News and the AP called Arizona for Biden, while others held off. That means different media organisations now have different tallies of electoral college votes – as some have assigned Arizona’s 11 votes to Biden, and others have not.
So why do some counts take so long?
This is mainly because there are different types of votes. There are votes made in person on election day, there are votes mailed in within the state, there are votes mailed in from citizens abroad or in other states and there are votes from members of the military, many stationed overseas. Each state has different procedures for counting and verifying these votes and sometimes those rules even vary from county to county. Some times these votes come in after election day. Some states accept that, some do not. Sorting through all that in a nation as big and varied as the US takes time.
Has Covid had an impact?
Yes. The pandemic meant that tens of millions of voters decided to cast their ballots by mail due to public health fears of gathering in long queues at polling places. That was unusual for most – though not all – US states, who generally conduct their elections dominated by in-person votes. That has meant new rules, new procedures and in some cases lawsuits and investigations as these processes are worked through and debated. That has also slowed things down.
But didn’t Biden win the popular vote?
Yes, Biden looks set to win the popular vote by 4m or 5m ballots. While impressive it is also not what matters. US elections are not decided by the popular vote. When Americans cast their ballots for president, they are actually voting for a representative of that candidate’s party, known as an elector.
There are 538 electors who then vote for the president on behalf of the people in their states. Each state is assigned a certain number of these electoral votes, based on the number of congressional districts they have, plus two additional votes representing the state’s Senate seats. Washington DC is assigned three electoral votes, despite having no voting representation in Congress.
A majority of 270 of these votes is needed to win the presidency. That is why even though Biden has a popular vote lead of millions, the race actually hinges on winning certain key states, like Pennsylvania with its hefty bag of 20 electoral college votes.
Can Trump win in the courts?
It’s an extreme long shot. The Trump campaign is pursuing lawsuits in multiple states in an attempt to have various batches of ballots thrown out. For example, Trump has joined a case before the supreme court that could potentially reverse a decision allowing ballots received after election day in Pennsylvania (but postmarked by election day) to be counted.
The problem for Trump is that most of the claims his team is advancing appear weak, and several have already been thrown out of court. Another problem for Trump: the total number of ballots challenged by his lawsuits does not appear to be anywhere close to large enough to flip the result in any state.
The Trump campaign has said it will formally request a recount in Wisconsin. Georgia is also set for a recount and others may follow. But recounts in major US elections rarely move the tally by more than a few hundred votes, not nearly enough to make a difference.
Could something really crazy happen?
The basic point to understand is that every last avenue to re-election for Trump has been pretty much closed. But because it’s Trump, who appears ready to try anything to stay in power, the question is worth exploring.
The multi-stage nature of the electoral college, in which voters in each state pick a winner and then state legislatures appoint “electors” who cast 538 ballots for president, could allow some opportunity for foul play, although it’s extremely unlikely.
There has been some wild talk among some Republicans about trying to get a Republican-controlled legislature in a state such as Pennsylvania to ignore the will of the voters and appoint a slate of electors that favours Trump instead of Biden. The Republican leaders of both chambers of the state legislature, however, have adamantly knocked down the idea.
Trump has loudly called on supporters to “defend” the election, and some have brought guns to rallies outside ballot-counting sites. The attorney general, William Barr, has been wholly offstage since before election day. It’s possible Trump’s justice department could make some kind of coordinated legal play against the whole election.
But owing to the decentralised nature of US elections, that would be exceedingly difficult. Unlike in the 2000 election, when the entire race came down to one state, Florida, and a legal challenge by Republicans succeeded in halting a recount, this year there are multiple states contributing to a Biden victory – and he does not need a recount to win.
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