Patterns of voting in the presidential election have once again revealed the deep divides that cut across America. As the social makeup of different parts of the country is shifting, so too is the balance of power in electoral politics. As the Democrats have seen their support grow in urban, more racially diverse, educated and younger places, the Republicans have strengthened their political hold on rural and small-town America, in places that are older and home to higher numbers of white, non-college graduates – a group that swung decisively behind Donald Trump in 2016, delivering him victory.
While both Trump and Joe Biden made gains on their party’s vote share in 2016, as fringe candidates were pushed to the sidelines, it was the Democrat who made the largest gains.
Analysis of voting in more than 3,000 counties across the United States sheds considerable light on the parts of the country that are moving in the direction of the Democrats, and those places that are shifting towards the Republicans – even against the national tide in this election.
Education
Education has become a defining faultline of US electoral politics. Counties with populations made up of more than 20% college graduates saw Biden make an average gain of 3.4 percentage points on Hillary Clinton’s vote compared with just 0.5 points elsewhere. In Forsyth county in Georgia, where 52% of the electorate holds a degree, the vote for the Democratic party increased by nine points.
In contrast, Trump secured gains of 2.5 points in counties where more than 70% of the population were white, non-college graduates. Willacy county in Texas, for example, where 86% of voters are whites who did not graduate from college, saw a 13-point increase in support for Trump. This trend is not just to do with Trump. Since 2000, the Republican party has seen its support increase most in those counties with more white, non-college voters.
Race
The picture in terms of race is rather more complicated. In about 300 counties where more than 30% of the electorate is African American, Biden made smaller gains (an additional 0.8 points) than in other areas – where he made 3.2 points on average. More broadly, Democrat gains differed little in areas with more or fewer black voters.
However, Biden did marginally better in counties where more than 90% of the population was white. This hints at how he was able to peel off support in the key north-eastern and midwest states in the electoral college – Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania – all of which Trump won in 2016.
Joe Biden on average gained 3.2 points in places that are more than 50% urban
Another striking feature of the 2020 presidential election was the Republican gains among Latino voters. Trump on average gained 3.8 points support in places where more than 20% of the eligible electorate was of Hispanic origin. Republican gains of 12 points in Florida’s largest county, Miami-Dade, where 64% of the population are Latino, proved pivotal in Trump winning the state, because the margin of victory was so narrow.
Urban-rural
The election further sharpened the urban-rural divide in American politics. The concentration of economic growth in urban centres has seen an influx of younger, educated professionals – shifting the politics of those places in a liberal direction, against the more socially conservative outlook of older voters in small-town and rural America.
Biden on average gained 3.2 points in places that are more than 50% urban. In Maricopa county in Arizona, where nearly 2 million votes were cast, the Democratic party increased its vote share by 6 points.
Trump, in contrast, averaged a nearly two-point gain in majority rural areas.
The direction of travel in 2020 reflects a longer-term trend that has seen different parts of the country moving apart in terms of their outlooks and voting behaviour. Looking at change in the Democratic party vote in presidential elections since 2000, its gains have predominantly been concentrated in large urban centres, while falling back in less densely populated small towns and rural areas.
Continuing divisions
The fallout from the 2020 election promises to be acrimonious and divisive. America’s divisions go far deeper, however, driven by divergent trajectories of growth and decline in different places, and partisan distrust is the order of the day.
While Biden has campaigned on the promise of a more united America, the demographic trends underlying this polarisation – combined with partisan antipathy – suggest that these divisions will not be healed soon.
Will Jennings is professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southampton and Elections Analyst, Sky News
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