The next couple of weeks will be crucial in determining what kind of Christmas we have this year: a lonely, joyless affair in front of our TVs or, at best, a modest celebration, sharing the odd Christmas cracker with one or two close relatives.
The arithmetic that will determine the outcome is straightforward, say scientists. If we are to have any prospect of getting out of national lockdown in four weeks, then case numbers of Covid-19 will have to fall – significantly. And it will not be obvious that we are succeeding in reaching that goal until we are in the third or fourth week of our 28-day seclusion.
However, if numbers do go down fairly sharply by 2 December, and if the R value drops well below 1, then we can hope for some reprieve from restriction – albeit one still limited by the tier system. London could contemplate opening up to tier 2 and possibly get some access to pubs and restaurants, for example.
“We’re not talking about coming out of lockdown and going straight into a great big Christmas party,” said virologist Professor Nicola Stonehouse, of Leeds University. “We’re talking about going back into the tier system. I live in Leeds, and I would love to think that we’ll be in tier 2 coming out of this. We will have to wait and see, however.”
Achieving such goals will require fairly dramatic infection reductions and people accepting continued limitations on their personal freedom. That is the contract we have made with the government.
But it is a two-way deal, scientists insist. For their part, ministers must grapple effectively with the pandemic and fulfil their side of the unstated deal they have made with the public – for the actions they take over the coming month will be every bit as important as those taken by their citizens.
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For a start, the government must use the next four weeks to make its test-and-trace system work properly. It is simply inadequate at present. Getting it to work would give the nation a chance of taking some control of the pandemic when lockdown stops.
But what scientists also stress is that testing and tracing are not enough. Ensuring people who test positive can isolate is the really crucial business, they insist. And that aspect of the system has simply not been addressed.
“Sending infected individuals back to isolate at homes they might share with several generations of families, including elderly relatives is not the way to do this,” said Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at Edinburgh University. “We need to think about putting infected people in hostels or similar accommodation. They will also need financial support.”
It was crucial, he added, that the government acted decisively on this issue. “In exchange for us giving up our freedoms, the government actually has to do something to make sure we don’t have to do this again.”
And that prospect was a real worry, he added. Modelling carried out at Edinburgh University last March suggested one particularly likely scenario. It forecast that the country would have to go through a three-month lockdown, which would be followed by a drop in case numbers in summer, before a second wave of the disease arrived in the autumn.
“The worrying thing about that scenario is that it also forecast that there would be a third wave early next year,” said Woolhouse. “Now I am not predicting a third wave, but I most certainly cannot rule it out. And if there is a third wave in another few months followed by another lockdown, I would be very concerned about people’s compliance with it on a third occasion. In essence, this is the government’s last chance to get its act together.”
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