Emmanuel Macron is trying to recast himself as the 'protective President'
Credit: Sylvain Lefevre/Getty Images
On Monday, Emmanuel Macron will preside over a small ceremony in a tiny town in eastern France called Colombey-les-Eglises. Standing to attention before the Croix de Lorraine, a towering pink granite cross overlooking the surrounding vineyards, he will pay tribute to the man who saved France in its darkest hour – Charles de Gaulle, who died 50 years ago on Monday.
Half a century on, Mr Macron is fighting a different set of fires that are threatening to consume the nation and his presidency. Not only is France facing Europe’s most severe second bout of the coronavirus epidemic with the highest current rate of infection, it has also endured a spate of horrific terror attacks, including the beheading of a teacher outside Paris by an Islamist and then more knife murders in a church in Nice.
On top of that, Mr Macron has become a target for angry protests from some Muslim communities over his defence of French secularism, the right to publish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed and his pledge to fight Islamism in the wake of the attacks. Turkey has led a call to boycott French goods.
“If we want to get into historic comparisons, I’m not sure that any single French president has experienced such a concentration of crises while being so under attack from abroad,” claimed one Elysée aide this week.
Macron's defence of the right to publish cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed sparked protests in Yemen and elsewhere
Credit: AHMAD AL-BASHA / AFP
In the midst of all the drama, polls suggest, however, that the centrist 42-year old has seen a sudden and significant rise in popularity back home. According to the Ifop-Fiducial poll for Paris Match conducted late last week, the French head of state rose eight points to reach an approval rating of 46 per cent.
At this stage in their presidencies, his two predecessors were faring far worse. In November 2015, François Hollande, Mr Macron’s Socialist erstwhile boss, was in the doldrums on 27 per cent – a score that briefly rose slightly after the Paris attacks that month only to slide back down again. Before him, Right-winger Nicolas Sarkozy was faring slightly better on 32 per cent in November 2006. Neither were re-elected. Indeed Mr Hollande was so unpopular he didn’t even run.
To bounce back like that is unique for a French president bar in periods of "cohabitation", when a president shares power with an opposition prime minister, according to Ifop’s Frédéric Dabi. But “Teflon” Macron hasn’t just pulled it off once. This is the fourth time since his 2017 election that he has seen a similar ratings rebound.
The first came in December that year after the ex-investment banker successfully pushed through a reform loosening France’s restrictive labour code, proving he could get results.
Prime Minister Jean Castex has taken the flak for President Macron
Credit: TEPHANE DE SAKUTIN/AFP
The second came last year after his gruelling face-off with the Yellow Vests, a tax revolt that morphed into months of violent protests and a hate campaign by many against Mr Macron himself, branded “president of the rich”. He successfully defused the revolt with a public debate and €10 billion in sweeteners.
The third time came with the first Covid-19 lockdown in March, when in Gaullesque tones he told the nation that it was “at war” but that he would prop up the economy “whatever the cost”. His ratings shot up 13 points.
This time, said Mr Dabi, the French are more grudging about lockdown but have chosen to “rally around the flag” given rocketing hospitalisations but also the terror threat.
Paradoxically, while he has made gains, his new prime minister, Jean Castex, has seen his popularity fall as his government flounders in dealing with the pandemic and a series of communication gaffes. Mr Dabi said Mr Macron had managed to remain above the fray by letting his prime minister take the flak and act as a “fuse” – an unusual political feat in recent times.
The question is whether he can shore up support as the country edges towards the 2022 presidential election.
Macron has boosted security forces on the streets
Credit: ulien Mattia/Anadolu Agency
“Macron said in his last campaign he would ‘free and protect’ France,” said Bernard Sananès of the Elabe pollster, which noted a less pronounced approval rise for Macron this week, suggesting that a sense of national unity may already be wearing off. “But in the first two years, public opinion only really retained the word ‘free’, via his liberal reforms, which were starting to bear fruit as unemployment dropped and investment rose before Covid struck. This crisis has given him the opportunity to redress the balance and recast himself as ‘the protective President’.”
But that poses a problem. “Until now he has been seen as a young, go-getting, optimistic leader. The question is will public opinion buy this shift and recognise that he can play a protective role. It’s still too early to say,” said Mr Dabi.
Mr Macron has certainly embraced his protective role to the full, this week doubling the number of soldiers in the streets and the amount of police on France’s borders due to the foreign terror threat.
The vast majority of French back such moves, a poll out on Friday suggests, along with even more radical ideas, including stripping dual nationals of French citizenship and throwing foreigners considered a security threat out of the country.
Macron has become a target amid angry protests from some Muslim communities
Credit: AP Photo/Fareed Khan
Meanwhile, rivals have failed to capitalise on claims that he hasn’t got a handle on health and security. The generosity of French furloughing schemes and a €100 billion bailout plan has helped tone down the Left-wing mantra that he is “president of the rich”. Meanwhile, his tough stance on Islamism, insecurity and immigration has effectively neutered opponents on the Right.
“Churchill and De Gaulle weren’t working for one party but for the nation. Macron is trying to act the same,” said political commentator Thomas Legrand. “When it comes to secularism or pumping money into the economy under Covid, he is trying to be coherent with ‘what France should do’.”
“Where he is fortunate is that populism in France is split into two: the far-Left and Right. That has prevented notably [far-Right] leader Marine Le Pen from making inroads,” said Mr Legrand. His support base from the first round of presidential elections has meanwhile remained largely loyal.
The Covid crisis has helpfully put one of his most contentious reforms to shake up the country’s creaking pension system on ice. And while the Europhile president has gone relatively quiet on Europe as he deals with domestic disasters, personal attacks from abroad have only served to galvanise support for him at home.
Macron has also tightened border security in the wake of recent terror attacks
Credit: Guillaume Horcajuelo/Pool via REUTERS
“The way he defends our value system may have made him enemies abroad, but it reassures the French about their identity, based not on ethnicity or religion but the Republic itself,” said Mr Legrand. “When a teacher was beheaded by an Islamist and the rest of the world appeared to be saying ‘you haven’t been nice enough to Muslims’, the French were appalled. Macron has understood that.”
And while he may come across as arrogant abroad, that’s not the way many French see it. “Au contraire, they’d like him to be even more arrogant because they love a touch of grandeur,” said Mr Legrand.
Domestically, however, they are far more fickle. “We’re a regicidal country that wants a monarch but also to chop off his head. That’s the eternal paradox.” He needs to set the right tone or face the guillotine.
“We need the Republic and someone to embody it but at the same time you mustn’t take it too far. De Gaulle could because he saved the Republic once and it was another era,” said Mr Legrand. But Macron is no De Gaulle.
Recent Comments