President-Elect Joe Biden has at last secured the keys to the White House, ending Donald Trump’s ambitions of a second term, as Pennsylvania turned blue once more.
It was despite a nail-biting conclusion to a hard-fought and bitter campaign, with threats of legal action from Donald Trump still hovering over the result.
US 2020 election
The race went to the wire after pollsters significantly underestimated Biden’s chances in some key states, dragging the results out over three days.
But after the former Vice President – boosted by the late additions of hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots – took the key state of Pennsylvania, quickly followed by Nevada, he has now secured 279 electoral college votes – passing the winner-takes-all majority of 270.
And with leads extending in Georgia and Arizona his victory is no longer in any doubt.
Biden’s victory appears to have been boosted in some areas by better educated voters, while his chances were stymied by a higher than anticipated Trump support among Hispanic voters.
US Election article panel
How the night played out
With Florida claimed by Trump, and Biden on course to pick up the historically red state of Arizona, the contest was too close to call by the time election day drew to a close.
The election rested on as yet uncounted votes in battleground states, with Trump sowing seeds of mistrust among his supporters over mail-in ballots and threatening to go to the Supreme Court.
By the time a victory speech could have been expected, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina were still up for grabs, with Trump leading in all but Wisconsin and Nevada.
Alaska, a solid Republican state, had not yet declared, and questions remained over the count in Arizona, which the Associated Press and Fox News declared for Biden but others were more cautious.
Geographical US election map
A key turning point in the night was Florida declaring for Trump, with its 29 electoral college votes, at around 6am GMT.
It was a clear indication of how the polls had once again underestimated Trump’s support base, with Biden expected to take the state in late polling.
But fortunes began to reverse for the Democrats as millions of mail-in votes started coming in, and when Michigan turned blue – one of the few states to change colour after Trump’s shock win in 2016 – Biden’s chances of securing the Presidency heightened.
How election day played out
After Trump declared no more votes should be counted, supporters have been picketing polling booths and calling for a halt to the count.
Many pundits anticipated the tactic in the event of no clear winner emerging on election day – and it remained all to play for in the key battleground states which had not yet seen a winner declared.
As the hours dragged on Biden toppled Trump’s leads – first in Georgia where he is now more than 5,000 votes ahead, then in Pennsylvania – a huge turning point in the race.
By 4.30pm GMT on Friday, Biden’s lead over Trump in Pennsylvania extended to 0.5 – the margin over which a recount would be likely – with 99 per cent of votes reported.
It put him over the line for the Presidency after an agonising wait, with the popular vote standing at 50.6 for Biden and 47.7 for Trump.
After Pennsylvania was declared for Biden he stood on 273 electoral college votes, and moments later Nevada followed suit, putting his tally at 279.
How were the polls so wrong?
Before polling stations closed many anticipated a clear victory for Biden, who ended the campaign more than eight points clear of Trump on the national polls.
But as the electoral map continued to turn red – with an almost exact replica of the 2016 results – it became clear the contest would be far closer than first thought.
Only after Michigan and Wisconsin flipped to Biden, and the remaining mail-in votes – heavily weighted Democrat – started to flood in did the gap begin to close.
Pollsters underestimated Trump’s support
With the majority of the votes counted the margin of error from pollsters across the country became clear, with Biden failing to take hold of a clutch of states which could have handed him a landslide.
According to the final state polling Biden held narrow leads in Florida and Ohio, running a close second to the incumbent in Iowa.
While Trump is now on course for defeat, he performed better than expected in an election which saw an historic turnout.
In Iowa Biden trailed Trump by 8.2 points with 99 per cent having reported. Final polling gave the Democrat a tight 1.5 point lead.
In Florida Biden was polling 2.1 points ahead of Trump, but lost the state by 3.3.
Early indications also suggest the polls may have underestimated the Hispanic support Trump could wield.
In the 2016 election 28 per cent of Hispanic men voted for Trump, but according to exit poll data that number rose to 36 per cent this year, while support among Hispanic women remained steady.
One in three Hispanic men voted for Trump
But while Trump’s base four years ago was cemented among white men, his support among the demographic appears to have waned this year.
In 2016 62 per cent of white men voted for Trump, while exit polls suggest that number has fallen to 58 per cent this year.
Among white women, however, Trump appeared to be more popular, with his vote share in 2016 of 47 per cent rising to 55 per cent.
Biden vs Clinton
Biden’s victory should not have been so hard-earned, if polling had been closer to the mark.
The final polls before election day gave Biden an 8.4 point lead – double where Hillary Clinton had been in 2016.
While a succession of state polls were subject once more to clear margins of error, the national picture began to realign itself as more Democratic votes trickled through.
Currently, Biden’s lead in the popular vote stands at 2.9, a lower margin by 5.1 points from where polling had expected him to be.
How key states voted
Donald Trump’s chances were boosted with the declaration of Florida, while Joe Biden edged within touching distance of the White House when he flipped Michigan back to the Democrats.
The influence of the Hispanic vote is borne out in county-level results for Florida, which was a turning point on election night when it was declared for Trump.
How Florida voted
Many counties in Florida have significant Hispanic populations, and in some the Democratic vote share has disintegrated since 2016.
Trump Hispanic vote in Florida
In Miami-Dade – 68 per cent Hispanic – Trump’s vote share was more than 20 points up from 2016
In Osceola and Hendry counties (both 53 per cent Hispanic), Biden’s vote was 6.9 and 8.8 points down from 2016.
In Michigan Democratic success pivoted on a few key urban counties, with Biden securing more support within higher educated areas than his predecessor had four years earlier.
In the most populous area – Wayne County, home of Detroit – the Democratic vote share held firm from 2016.
How Michigan voted
It was boosted by large increases in support among counties with high proportions of college graduates, with increases in vote share of almost 10 points in Kent County and Grand Traverse County, each with around 50 per cent of over 25s having a college degree.
While pollsters had expected a ‘blue wave’ heading into election night, the following few days produced a ‘blue shift’ – with Democratic fortunes improving as mail-in ballots continued to flood in.
Biden vote share in Michigan
While Biden has secured victory Trump has made clear he will contest the result through the courts, and with weeks to go before inauguration day there could yet be further twists in the route to the Presidency.
US election county results – by population
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