How defeat in Senate battle could leave a hamstrung Joe Biden struggling to accomplish real change

The Democrats celebrate their election victory  

Should they stick to their previous warnings against putting a judge on America’s highest court so soon before an election, or not?

They picked the latter. Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on September 18, leading to the open seat. By October 26 a successor, Amy Coney Barrett, had been selected, grilled and confirmed by the Senate. It was one of the quickest Supreme Court confirmation processes in recent times for a nominee who faces real opposition. Mr McConnell got his victory.

Now replace a Supreme Court seat with Mr Biden’s policy agenda. His $2 trillion plan to tackle climate change. His vow to overturn Mr Trump’s £1.5 trillion tax cut.

His proposal to offer every American a government-funded “public option” for health care. You could keep going — voter rights changes, police reforms, immigration changes.

Many of these policies saw left-wing leaders like Bernie Sanders arguing that Mr Biden would be the most progressive president since Franklin D Roosevelt, who ushered in the modern US welfare state with his New Deal in the 1930s and 1940s.

If the Republicans hold the Senate, that almost certainly is not going to happen. Every piece of legislation Mr Biden will hope to pass will need at least one Republican vote, perhaps many more.

Senate forecast

And even if the Senate is split 50-50, that still leaves no margin at all for rebellion. What if Senator Sanders opposes a piece of legislation that is too conservative for his liking? Or a law negatively impacts another senator’s constituency?

The Democrats can afford no rebels on any piece of legislation. The next two years until the 2022 midterm elections will be an endless cycle of legislative juggling, trying to piece together a majority for a bill in a split Senate.

Mr McConnell would also hold sway over Mr Biden’s cabinet. Each nominee for a cabinet post must undergo Senate hearings and then be approved by the body.

This does not kill Mr Biden’s agenda. He can pass executive orders, moves by a president that can be carried out unilaterally and have legal weight. He has much freedom on foreign policy.

But this time last week Democrats dreamed of a big Senate majority to vastly reshape America, and those dreams are gone.

Rather than any kind of radical reformer, Mr Biden in his early years in office looks set to be a presidential palate cleanser, washing away the division of the Trump term but struggling to make sweeping legislative change.