President Xi Jinping and then Vice President Joe Biden in 2015
Credit: Carolyn Kaster/AP
There is a certain disquiet in East Asia about what will replace outgoing US President Donald Trump’s tough-on China rhetoric when his successor Joe Biden takes office this week.
President Trump may stand accused of trying to undermine US democracy, but in corners of Asia he has been viewed as a strongman ally against China’s authoritarian ideology. Some fear a return to Obama-era engagement with Beijing that was criticised for granting too much leeway to its Communist leaders.
But foreign policy analysts argue that President Biden will hold a firm line against Beijing while dropping the bellicosity that could have triggered a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, and will start by rebuilding regional alliances as a stronger counterweight to Chinese military and political influence.
There are “clear signals that we are not going to see a fundamental break with the China balancing behaviour of the Trump years, but I do think that America will be more cautious over anything that looks like provocation,” said Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at Australian National University.
Washington’s Indo-Pacific policy lies at the heart of its ability to compete effectively with China, and President Biden’s team was in a better position to forge a successful strategy, argued Professor Medcalf.
Kurt Campbell, the new Asia coordinator, is a trusted hand among the US' Asian allies
Credit: Saeed Khan/AFP
“That’s principally because of the much greater respect that a Biden administration is going to show for allies and partners. The lack of capriciousness and reckless idiosyncracy that we saw from Trump, we can be pretty confident that will be missing.”
An early indicator of the direction of President Biden’s Indo-Pacific and China policies can be seen in his appointments of Asia specialists to senior government positions, said Prof. Medcalf, adding that their published writings were all firm on China.
Ely Ratner, a former deputy national security advisor to Vice-President Biden is slated to become special assistant to the secretary of defence on China, while state department veteran Laura Rosenberger will serve as senior director for China at the White House.
Kurt Campbell, a former top Pentagon and state department official and one of the most respected Indo-Pacific strategists in Washington, will become ‘Asia coordinator’, a newly created position inside the White House in a nod to the rising importance of the challenges posed by China.
Mr Campbell played a central role in the Obama administration’s “pivot” or “rebalance” to Asia, which aimed to boost US military, economic and diplomatic ties in the Indo-Pacific, and is already viewed as a trusted hand by many Asian partners.
Jake Sullivan, the incoming national security advisor, is expected to take a robust approach to Beijing
Credit: Chandan Khanna/AFP
He is said to have developed a “harder edge” and taken a more “clear-eyed” approach to engagement with Beijing after helping to negotiate the end to a dangerous standoff between the Philippines and China over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea in 2012.
The Philippines retreated as agreed, but Chinese ships did not. The U-turn was viewed in Washington as a sign of bad faith and a turning point in Beijing’s ambitions to exert dominance in the region and squeeze the US out.
In a 2019 essay in Foreign Affairs, Mr Campbell and Jake Sullivan, the incoming national security adviser, said that the Trump administration rightly identified China as a “strategic competitor” but argued the the US could both challenge and coexist with China.
To do so it would need to “embed its China strategy in a dense network of relationships and institutions in Asia and the rest of the world,” they wrote.
“The combined weight of US allies and partners can shape China’s choices across all domains—but only if Washington deepens all those relationships and works to tie them together.”
Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia at the Centre for International and Strategic Studies, said Biden’s team would first focus on repairing rifts between South Korea and Japan – both key to the US regional interests – and on rebuilding ties with Southeast Asia which were neglected under President Trump.
Taiwan is integral to US security interests in the Indo-Pacific
Credit: Ritchie B Tongo/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
“We have to build an economic, a diplomatic and a security pillar for our Indo-Pacific strategy and the economic pillar has always been weak and the Southeast Asians care a great deal about economics,” she said.
She predicted a steadier hand on sensitive issues like Taiwan, a democratic island which the Chinese Communist Party claims although it has never ruled, and which is integral to the US’ regional security strategy.
While the Trump administration offered Taipei overt support, it also put Taiwan at greater risk by wielding it as a “cudgel” towards Beijing, Ms Glaser argued.
Daniel Russel, vice-president at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former senior Asia diplomat in the Obama era, said President Biden’s policies would respond to China’s “altered course” under President Xi Jinping.
China has “taken a vastly more ideological turn and has not only gained significantly in comprehensive national strength but has abandoned its compunctions about utilising that strength in aggressive and coercive ways,” he said.
“A tremendous surge in scepticism about Chinese intentions” faced President Biden as he entered office, he said.
“He is an experienced and astute politician. He knows how to read the signals…He is a true believer not only in the United States but in the democratic system and I think he is going to prove to be quite tough in many respects,” added Mr Russel.
“Not the mindless, shrill posturing of the Trump era, but Biden and the Biden team is going to be smart rather than bellicose in their approach, he’s going to be strategic rather than ideological.”
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