Conte government under threat again after possible coalition partner hit with mafia allegations

Lorenzo Cesa during his election campaign in 2018

Credit: NurPhoto 

The fragile Italian government faces another threat of collapsing next week, as the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s plans to expand his tight majority in parliament were derailed by a mafia investigation involving a possible new ally. 

Mr Conte survived a confidence vote in the Senate by just a few ballots on Tuesday following the exit of Matteo Renzi’s tiny centrist party from the ruling coalition. 

But his bid to strengthen his hold on government appears increasingly challenging after one of the small parties he was courting, the centrist UDC, was hit on Thursday by a judicial scandal. 

Its head Lorenzo Cesa was forced to resign after being notified he was under investigation for alleged links with the powerful ‘Ndrangheta mafia syndicate.   

According to prosecutors, Mr Cesa allegedly facilitated some ‘Ndrangheta businessmen and was their political “referent.” 

He has denied any wrongdoing, but said it was his duty to step down and wait for the outcome of the probe. 

It is part of a broader investigation, led by Catanzaro anti-mafia prosecutors, that has seen 48 people arrested and another 35 placed under house arrest under suspicion of mafia association, money laundering, illicit trafficking and other crimes.

The news has rocked Italian politics and cast doubt on the fate of Mr Conte’s negotiations with his possible future allies.

The Five Star Movement, one of the senior partners in Mr Conte’s ruling coalition, made clear that negotiating with UDC was not an option anymore. 

“I feel like saying that the Five Stars will never be able to open a dialogue with subjects convicted or under investigation for mafia or similar crimes,” Foreign Minister and Five Stars’ leader Luigi Di Maio wrote on Facebook. 

Italian PM Conte attends a debate before a confidence vote on January 19 

Credit: YARA NARDI /REUTERS

That leaves the Conte government with very few other alternatives as it prepares to face a key vote in parliament next week.  

On Jan. 27, the justice minister is scheduled to present in parliament the government’s annual report on the justice system, which will then be voted on.

If Mr Conte loses the vote, he will inevitably come under renewed pressure to resign.

“In this context, it is hardly surprising that both Conte and his allies in the Five Stars and the Democratic Party have been raising the specter of early elections over the past 24 hours,” said Wolfango Piccoli, founder of research firm Teneo, in a note.

“This is essentially done to put additional pressure on wavering senators to join the government,” he added.  

Fresh elections, however, remain the least likely scenario, as president Sergio Mattarella – the only one who has the power to dissolve the chambers – would likely be wary of doing that in the middle of a pandemic.

“The ongoing political crisis will drag on for some time, further increasing the government’s ineffectiveness at the worst possible time for Italy’s economy and its fight against the pandemic,” said Mr Piccoli.

In case of Mr Conte’s immediate resignation, Mr Mattarella would have to start consultations with the various parties and explore possible new coalitions.  

One of the options could be the creation of a “transition” government — possibly led by a technocrat – that could lead Italy out of the pandemic and of its worst recession since WWII.