Europe faces third wave as it lags behind with vaccinations

Rome deserted as Italy faces third wave

Credit: RICCARDO ANTIMIANI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

A third wave of the coronavirus is sweeping across large areas of Europe and threatens to engulf many countries quicker than they can hope to vaccinate their citizens.

In Italy, infections have risen by 50 per cent in a fortnight, and there are now 300 deaths a day. In Hungary, infections have more than doubled in 14 days. In the Czech Republic, they are now so high local immunologists say the country could achieve herd immunity without the help of vaccines.

“Fear has turned into anger and exhaustion,” Italy’s influential La Repubblica newspaper said on Wednesday. “We’re waiting for the vaccines like pioneers in a Western movie, surrounded by Indians, scanning the horizon and waiting for the Seventh Cavalry.”

This is the backdrop to the escalating war of words between Britain and the European Union over vaccine exports. The UK, until recently one of the worst affected countries in the world, now has little to fear from a third wave because of its successful vaccine roll-out.

EU vaccine rollout suffers

But in much of the rest of Europe, where vaccination rates lag far behind, governments face a race not with Britain but with the virus itself.

Ironically, much of the recent rise in European infections has been fuelled by the new “British variant” of the virus that was first detected in Kent.

“We’ve learnt nothing,” was the weary front-page headline in Italy’s L’Espresso news magazine this week.

The first European country to go into lockdown last year, Italy is facing calls for new restrictions after it crossed the grim milestone of 100,000 deaths this week. 

“It is clear that it is necessary to take exceptional measures,” said Vincenzo De Luca, the governor of the region of Campania. “Just as it is clear that we are in the third wave all over Italy.”

Yet the picture is far from uniform across the continent. While Italy and much of Central Europe have seen a steep rise in infections over the past two weeks, in Germany and France they have largely plateaued. 

Germany, which Angela Merkel declared was in the grip of a third wave  a week ago, has not seen a sharp rise in cases, so far at least. Infections have only risen slightly — and deaths and hospitalisations have fallen, despite the country’s low rate of vaccination.

Covid-19 percentage increase in past two weeks across Europe

France has been in a third wave since the start of the year but the infection rate has flattened since late January and remains steady, if high.

Spain and Portugal appear to be past the third wave, with infections dropping steeply in both countries. In Spain there are at their lowest level since August last year, and authorities are trying to strike a balance between maintaining social distancing and reopening the vital tourist sector.

Even in the Czech Republic, which is arguably in its fourth wave and has seen the most cases in the world per capita, infections have finally started to fall.

But vaccination rates remain poor across much of Europe, leaving the continent at the mercy of fresh waves of the virus. While the UK has already given a first jab to a third of the population, Germany, the world’s fourth biggest economy, has managed less than 7 per cent, and France less than 6 per cent. 

Yet despite the acrimony over vaccine exports, there is little evidence of shortages in most of Europe. On the contrary, many countries are struggling to administer what they have to their citizens.

According to the latest EU figures, Germany and France have each used less than three-quarters of their vaccine stocks, while Belgium has used less than a third.

That is partly down to public reluctance to take the AstraZeneca jab after European governments cast doubt on its efficacy — a recent poll found nearly a quarter of Italians said they would refuse it and demand one of the rival vaccines.

But that is not the whole story. In many European countries, the vaccine roll-out appears to have been hampered as much by bureaucracy and incompetence as any controversy over AstraZeneca.

Germany has used  less than half its stocks of the AstraZeneca vaccine — but only a third of its supply of the more popular Moderna jab.

More than 3m people from the most at-risk group — over-80s and those with serious health conditions — have still not had their first jab and there are reports of people in their 90s unable to get an appointment because of overloaded telephone hotlines.