US Air Force F16 fighters fly in formation during a joint US-Philippine exercise earlier this month. Credit: Ezra Akayan/Getty Images
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been pleading for months for donations of F-16 jets, saying their «historic» delivery would «significantly bolster» Ukraine's strength.
Meanwhile The Kremlin denounced the proposal as a colossal risk and said that countries supplying aircraft or training, including the UK, were «playing with fire».
Like Himars rocket launchers, Leopard tanks and Patriot missiles before them, the F-16s have become totem symbols of Western support, which Ukrainians say will provide a powerful boost to repel Russian forces.
Military experts say the arrival of more aircraft will give Kiev a much-needed upgrade in its battle with Russia's superior air force.
However, they also warn that this is not a quick fix and will take months to implement, meaning the new planes are unlikely to play a direct role in this year's long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Of all the surprises Ukrainian forces over the past 15 months, their defiance of the Russian Air Force has been one of the greatest.
More advanced Russian aircraft were expected to quickly destroy Ukraine's aging fleet, giving Moscow an easy advantage to launch air strikes at will.
The Ukrainian Air Force survived and continues to fly, while Russian aircraft flying over Ukraine are constantly at risk of being shot down by surface-to-air missiles.
F-16 Comparison
Still, it's survival was accompanied by heavy losses, and the odds are still not in Ukraine's favor.
Ukrainian pilots have described how they have to fly their aircraft, such as the MiG-29, at dangerously low altitudes to evade more powerful Russian aircraft and its formidable air defense systems.
The low altitude limits the possibility of air strikes against Russian positions. They also talk about being outmatched by Russian Su-35s and their R-37 missiles.
The latest serious losses of Ukrainian pilots and aircraft.
“Our pilots fly on a knife edge,” Colonel Volodymyr, head of the Ukrainian Air Force’s aviation development department, told the BBC earlier this month Lokhachev.
Sending F-16s will Analysts believe that this extra space should allow Ukraine to reduce the number of Russian air attacks and allow its aircraft to launch more airstrikes deep into the occupied territory.
'Not a panacea'
«The F-16 is not a panacea, but a totem for a fairer fight,» Edward Stringer, a retired Air Marshal of the Royal Air Force, wrote last week.
Gareth Jennings, aviation expert for defense intelligence company Janes, said: «I don't think the F-16s alone will give the Ukrainians air superiority, and I don't think so.» #39;this is their essence.
Instead, they will let Kiev «keep the Russian Air Force at arm's length,» he said.
The American-built F-16 «Fighting Falcon» first entered service with the US Air Force in 1980.
A single-seat jet aircraft is designed for both air combat and ground strikes. and has become popular with militaries around the world.
Many of them are now retiring and selling their F-16s to replace them with more modern aircraft like the F-35.
But they remain a «quantum leap» ahead of what the Ukrainian Air Force currently has, one RAF source said.
An F-16 refuels in the air during a US military exercise. Photo: John Locher/Las Vegas Review-Journal
“I would prefer the F-16 MiG-29 any day of the week,” he added.
How effective they will be depends on which generation F-16 is supplied.
The main aircraft is 40 years old, although NATO forces have upgraded the electronic systems and radars inside over the years.
Some aviation analysts warn that if only earlier versions are provided to Ukraine, they will still be significantly outperformed by the latest Russian aircraft.
Douglas Barry, Senior Fellow, Military Aerospace, Analytical center of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he doubted that the West would donate anything outdated.
He said: “Given what we have seen in terms of equipment that Western countries have been supplying by date, that has not been of any use. Far from it.
It will also be key what weapons are provided. The delivery of longer-range AIM-120 air-to-air missiles will go a long way to help counterbalance the fighting among Ukrainian forces, Mr. Barry said.
F-16s can also be equipped with JDAM precision bombs and HARM anti-radar missiles designed to combat air defense. Both of them have already been handed over to the Ukrainians.
Protesters in Warsaw, Poland earlier this year during a visit by US President Joe Biden. Photo: NurPhoto/NurPhoto. means flying close to the ground when close to the front line, says Justin Bronk of the Royal Combined Arms Institute. According to him, this will reduce their effectiveness.
The biggest question is how quickly all this can be done.
Pilot training alone is estimated to take at least four months, although some predict much more.
They will also need mechanics, ground support and logistics. Using Western contractors may save time, but it is an important undertaking.
This means the F-16s are unlikely to play a role in any imminent counteroffensive.
The benefits will be medium to long term.
Mr. Barry said: «If there is any counter-offensive anytime soon, it seems to me that the Ukrainians will use everything they have in terms of aviation.»
Perhaps that is why their greatest effect will be in the medium to long term, as they will be an important guarantee for the future of Ukraine.
Kyiv has long stated that whatever the outcome of the campaign to regain its territory, the country needs NATO-standard forces to protect its border from a hostile Russia in long term.
Many see Mr. Biden's decision to allow allies to export F-16s as an admission that this is true, and that Washington is willing to do so.
«Ukraine is going to remain an independent country, it will need the full range of military capabilities,” Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said earlier this month. look and what it might contain.”
Another official told Politico that whatever happens in the war, Ukraine will have to defend its long border against a hostile neighbor.
“So they whatever happens, we will need a modern air force.”
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