On June 9, Nadine Dorris announced that she plans to hold a by-election in Bedfordshire Mid. Photo: Leon Neal/Getty
The Conservatives are on course for the biggest by-election defeat in Mid-Bedfordshire in UK history, according to a poll that will send Conservative MPs into a frenzy.
Poll by Opinium, showed that Labor would cancel 24,664 Nadine Dorries. majority in a seat that has been held by Tories since 1931.
The defeat will shock many Conservative MPs, raising the possibility that other seats deemed “safe” may now be at risk.
Recent nationwide polls have given Labor a lead of more than 20 points amid soaring inflation and a cost-of-living crisis.
Mr Sunak said he inherited “the worst possible contribution to a new job imaginable”.
Middle Bedfordshire Tory constituency poll expected to take place
Although many MPs have factored in by-election defeat in places with smaller majorities, such as Boris Johnson's former constituency in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, senior party officials are expected to win Mid-Bedfordshire, which Dorris has represented since 2005.
Ms Dorries confirmed last week that she would be “out well before the next election” by announcing on June 9 that she planned to hold a by-election.
Labor ordered an Opinium poll last month after unconfirmed reports from campaigners that voters seem to be leaving conservatives en masse.
Peter Kyle, Shadow Secretary for Northern Ireland who won Hove against the Conservatives in 2015 and is leading the Labor campaign in Mid Bedfordshire, said: “Here the community is on the run from the Tories, but they have not yet fully chosen their destination. Labor has nothing to be complacent about, but this is just a huge, unprecedented and historic opportunity.”
The Campaign Begins
The Tories, Labor and Liberal Democrats have chosen candidates who launched the campaign last month along with Gareth McKee, a prominent independent Central Bedfordshire Council.
In the poll, Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye won 24%, Labor 28% and Liberal Democrats 15%. Mr McKee scored 19% of those who chose the candidate, while Reform UK candidate David Holland scored 10%.
Last year, Boris Johnson suffered the biggest by-election defeat in British history when the Lib Dems overturned a Tory majority of 24,239 votes in Tiverton and Honiton. The loss led to a chain of events that began with the resignation of Oliver Dowden from the government and ended with the resignation of Johnson two weeks later.
The poll shows Labor is well on its way to breaking that record, with Ms Dorris, with 24,664 votes, even higher than the previous Tory majority in Tiverton.
'Losing big chunks'
Adam Drumming , deputy director of Opinium, said: “The Conservatives hold just under half of their votes in 2019 and are losing big chunks to a mix of Labour, Liberal Democrats, reformists and local independents, while Labor is getting a cut from the Tories and Liberal Democrats to just put them in front.”
The poll shows that once Ms Dorris formally initiates a by-election, “there is everything to play for,” he added.
Ms Dorris' majority in Middle Bedfordshire represents the largest of those who the Conservatives are defending in by-elections in the coming months.
Mr Johnson held Uxbridge with 7,210 votes and Nigel Adams held Selby and Ainsty with 20,137 votes. By-elections for both seats will be held on July 20.
Mr Akinbusoye was seen as a good candidate for the Conservatives as he has served as Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner since 2021. Labor candidate Alistair Strathearn is a climate expert at the Bank of England.
Loss of majority on council
Earlier this year, the Conservatives lost their majority on Bedfordshire Central Council, with the independent group now holding 28 seats compared to 20 councilors from Tories.
Mr Mackie, an independent candidate with 19% of the vote in the poll, has been a council member since 2019.
Mr Kyle added: “In my experience, it is unprecedented to stand on the doorstep and let every tell you what's wrong with the party you're trying to bypass instead of being the person who has to tell them and convince them.
“All you do is say 'hello me'” m from the Labor Party, and then the residents tell you about Nadine, they laugh about whether there will be a by-election, and then they are usually very passionate about the absence of an MP and the presence of a party that takes them for granted.
< p>Mr Akinbusoy told voters he “takes nothing for granted”, adding: “People know what my track record is, what I've done here in Bedfordshire, for them, for our youth, for our communities. , and this is what I will do again if I am elected MP.
“I can be seen here, I live nearby, people know what I do and I think that people will make their judgments come to voting day.
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