Takuya Fukumoto, head of the Miyako Coast Guard Station, has noticed a spike in sightings of Chinese ships. The country's Minister of State for Defense said it was the same expression of international support as for Ukraine, the country's Minister of State for Defense said.
Questions about whether Tokyo would support Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack, and if so, how, arose at the same time as tensions grew around the democratic island, which Beijing claims to be its own and refuses to rule out an invasion.
Japan is pursuing a policy of de facto strategic ambiguity, refusing to publicly explain how or if it will respond to contingencies related to Taiwan.
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But the war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call of the potential for conflict on the cusp, and Tokyo's future is now the focus of Taiwan's future.
“If people all over the world show the will to support Taiwan, just as they supported Ukraine when we witnessed Russian aggression, then yes, it is quite possible that we will provide some support to Taiwan,” said Ino Toshiro. or logistics,” he said, adding that this would require the consensus of the Japanese people.
Officials in Tokyo are well aware of the parallels between Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Beijing's increasingly belligerent behavior towards Taiwan and other islands it claims to be its own.
“Ukraine today could become East Asia tomorrow,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida bluntly said. after the start of the war.
China's aggressive rearmament under Xi Jinping is also alarming. Tokyo is quick to respond with a 60 percent increase in military spending over the next five years, including a radical overhaul of the national defense strategy.
“We consider it a threat that China is increasing its military budget and dramatically increasing its assertiveness in maritime zones. Until now, we have not seen this level of threat,” Mr. Ino said.
But Japan learned from President Putin’s disastrous invasion that it must increase its deterrence capabilities to prevent Chinese attempts to seize Taiwan by force, while at the same time focusing on “constructive dialogue” with Beijing to avoid escalation in the first place, Mr. Ino said.
“We consider it important to demonstrate that it will be difficult to invade Taiwan or take aggressive action against Taiwan by military means,” he added.
At its westernmost point, Japan is only 70 miles from the coast of Taiwan. If Beijing attacks, any U.S. response is likely to come from several military bases on the southern island of Okinawa, which together house some 54,000 U.S. troops.
Okinawa Island is likely to be the staging area for any future US military operation in the area. Photo: Annabelle Chi
Japan will have to decide whether to give its consent to Washington, an ally and its main security partner, while weighing the risks of Chinese retaliation against its own territory and people.
Japan will also have to decide whether to actively join the fight. He may also seek defense cooperation with important allies such as the US and the UK, Mr. Eno added.
“If a crisis of this nature occurs, it is clear that we would like to request maximum support to contain any attempts to change the status quo by force.”
Pointing to concerns about the growing assertiveness of regional neighbors such as Russia, China and North Korea, Mr. Eno said: “The world’s security environment is becoming the most difficult in its history.”
Military spending between China and Japan since 2000
While Japan's political leaders are pursuing a policy of strategic uncertainty, the possibility of war looms over those who live on the islands stretching south towards Taiwan.
Already struggling with rising costs, drought and devastating summer typhoons that have hit his crops, the last thing sugarcane farmer Nakaza needs then Seyhanu is a threat of potential conflict.
But domes of radar hovering over the Air Self-Defense Force base about 200 meters from his home on the sleepy island of Miyako in Japan's Okinawa Prefecture remind him that his fields may one day be on the front lines. lines of major conflict between China and the West.
Surrounded by turquoise waters and coral reefs, Miyako is a tourist paradise, but its strategic location some 300 miles from Taiwan and less than 100 nautical miles from the uninhabited Senkaku Islands – the center of a deepening territorial dispute between Tokyo and Beijing – has also turned it into a vital military outpost. The ense force camp, equipped with surface-to-ship missiles, targets the Miyako Strait, a vital gateway for Chinese warships hoping to expand their presence in the western Pacific.
' Security in Okinawa Photo: Annabelle Zhi
70-year-old Nakazato fears that such military installations, instead of offering protection to the islanders, could provoke a war.
“Any place that has anything to do with power can and will be a target in the event of a conflict,” he said. “Why should a force with missiles be in this peaceful rural settlement?”
A very delicate debate
Mr. Nakazato's question involves a very delicate debate about how to build a stronger defense policy within Japan's pacifist constitution.
Bitter memories of Japan's aggression during World War II are deeply rooted in Asia, while Japanese society does not want to be embroiled in a major conflict after more than 70 years of post-war peace.
The constitution imposed by the United States after the end of the conflict forbids Japan from maintaining the capacity to wage war, allowing it to act only in self-defense. But a 2015 law passed by then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe allows Japan to act militarily in “collective self-defense” if a close ally is attacked.
The new national security and defense strategies, released last December, were seen as a seismic shift in Tokyo's approach to changing geopolitical realities, including the widening gap between Japanese and Chinese military power.
Japan plans to invest heavily in long-range cruise and hypersonic missiles, as well as beef up its forces in the Nansei area, a chain of islands critical to Taiwan's defense and a natural barrier between the Chinese navy and the Pacific.
p>In line with NATO standards
Its new defense spending target of reaching 2% of GDP by 2027 in line with NATO standards will eventually increase Japan's annual defense budget to around £57 billion, the largest in the world after the US and China.
Chinese and Japanese military
“In 2005, Japan's defense budget and China's military budget were almost equal, but now they spend four to five times as much as we do,” said Ken Jimbo is a professor at Keio University in Tokyo.
“We are looking to gain enough capability to deprive the Chinese of the prospect of operational success in major scenarios such as Taiwan, Senkaku, and also in the South China Sea.”
Japan's ability to enter the battle is key to containing conflict over the Taiwan Strait. .
The deployment of missiles with a range of 930 miles, in particular, will be “a huge wild card for Chinese strategic thinking,” Mr. Jimbo said.
Fears it could become a war zone
On Okinawa, site of the decisive but devastating battles of World War II and a likely staging area for any future US military operation, there are fears that the island could become a war zone again.
Okinawa's governor, Danny Tamaki, has long been pushing to ease the burden on the province of hosting US military bases that have at times had a difficult relationship with the local population.
“Okinawa only occupies 0.6% of Japan, but we have 76% of the facilities used only by US troops. I think this is unusual,” Mr. Tamaki said.
“The people of Okinawa are alarmed because they only see efforts to increase containment…we are concerned that this sends the wrong signal to people in the Asia-Pacific region,” he added.
“I want the Japanese government to focus on the economy and regional exchanges to establish peace.”
The missiles fell into the water
On the outlying islands of Okinawa, others take a different view. When Beijing began military exercises last August to protest the visit of Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, to Taipei, rockets landed in the waters off their coast.
Zakimi Kazuyuki, the mayor of Miyako, sees the advantage of bases on his island, even as he tries his best to calm the crowds of visiting tourists.
“Seeing how Russia invaded Ukraine, we are concerned that China is also showing an intention to unify Taiwan… so we must always be ready, we must have a minimum of readiness,” he said.
His office is already developing plans, together with the government and other local authorities, for an emergency evacuation of the islanders by air or sea. Contingency drills already started last year.
Meanwhile, tensions with China are affecting the local economy, he said. Local fishermen who once roamed the rich waters around the Senkaku Islands no longer venture there for fear of persecution.
Miyako Coast Guard Post is one of only two in the region that regularly patrols the disputed cliffs to protect Japan's territorial waters and its fishing boats.
A spike in Chinese boats
Since 2008, it has recorded a spike in sightings of Chinese Coast Guard boats in the adjacent zone (C Z) – an area up to 24 miles from the coast of Japan where the country is legally allowed to defend its territorial rights.
Since 2020, Chinese ships have observed more than 330 sightings per year of Chinese ships circling the zone.
At every invasion, the Japanese politely ask them to leave on the radio. The Chinese have countered by insisting that they are sailing in their territorial waters.
For now, the exchanges are peaceful as the Japanese try to reduce tensions and enforce international law.
“We must be firm but calm,” said Station Chief Takuya Fukumoto. “We won't use an angry voice.”
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