There has been a significant increase in the passenger car market in the Russian Federation this year, which is explained by the extremely low figures for 2022.
The Russian market for new cars collapsed at the end of last year: Autostat calculated that in 2022, less than 626.3 thousand new cars were registered with the traffic police, this result is 58.7% lower than the year before. By the way, the agency’s statistics also take into account those cars that were imported into the country under the parallel import scheme. This year, the Russian car market has so far seen growth.
In the photo: pre-reform Geely Coolray
According to data on the registration of new passenger cars in the country, according to the results of the first three quarters of 2023, the Russian car market increased 1.5 times; in January-September 717,310 thousand units were registered. The significant increase is the effect of a low base, because last year sales of new cars were at a record low.
Autostat has once again revised the forecast regarding the results of the Russian car market for the current year. Judging by the updated version, the pessimistic scenario assumes that a total of about 990 thousand new passenger cars will be sold in 2023: this result is 58% more than the final figure for 2022.
In the photo: Lada Vesta and Vesta SW Cross
According to the base scenario, by the end of this year, from 1.04 to 1.05 million new passenger cars will be sold on the Russian market: this option assumes an increase of 67% compared to last year. Analysts also have a third scenario, an optimistic one. He assumes that the result of the Russian car market in 2023 will be 1.09 million units (74% more than a year earlier).
The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation also shared their vision regarding the future of the Russian car market; Interfax refers to the corresponding forecast. The department believes that sales of new passenger cars in the Russian Federation at the end of this year will amount to about 1.059 million units (more than 1.7 times more than in 2022).
In the photo: Chery Tiggo 7 Pro Max
It is noted that approximately half of the expected sales volume — 524.6 thousand units — will be for passenger cars with engines with power ranging from 90 to 150 hp. Models with engines whose output varies from 150 to 200 hp will occupy more than 30% of the market (192 thousand units). For cars whose performance does not exceed 90 hp. it will be a little less – 189.2 thousand units. The department reserved over 10% of the market for cars with an output of 200 hp. and more.
According to the document, the Ministry expects that the growth rate of imports of passenger cars into the country will “outpace the rate of market recovery.” It is expected that by the end of this year a total of 444.3 thousand cars will be imported into the country, which corresponds to an increase of 2.8 times compared to 2022.
The Ministry of Economic Development explained that in In the coming years, they expect “smooth growth” from the Russian car market: according to the forecast, in 2024 the result will be 1.108 million passenger cars, in 2025 – 1.163 million units, and in 2026 – 1.225 million units. At the same time, the department assumes that from year to year the volume of imports will decrease by about 20% “against the backdrop of the recovery of the domestic market.”
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