Rishi Sunak is looking for new hope. As the Star Wars-crazed Prime Minister clears up the rubble of two more crushing by-election defeats, he will be looking for signs that he can still steer his party away from exile to the dark side of the House of Commons.
Moments after the results came in, Conservative strategists began crunching the numbers, looking for signs that things might not be as fatal as they seemed. Incredibly, they found a modicum of solace after a bad night.
They argued that the low turnout figures did not indicate a wave of support for Sir Keir Starmer. Instead, they demonstrated sky-high levels of apathy among traditional Tory voters who stayed home in droves.
Labor made history in Tamworth by unseating its largest ever majority in percentage terms, erasing the Tories' 42.6 per cent lead. However, at the same time, the number of people voting for the party increased by just 811 people compared to 2019.
Behind this surprising statistic is the fact that turnout in the West Midlands town where Conservative MP Chris Pincher was forced to resign in disgrace over sex scandal, which fell from 64.3 percent in the last election to just 36 percent on Thursday.
It was a similar story in Mid Bedfordshire, where despite winning the election, Labor recorded fewer votes than four years ago. Once again, it was apathy among former Tory supporters that led to a decline in support for the ruling party.
Conservative strategists and some MPs are already arguing that if the Prime Minister can find a way to galvanize that core base, there is a slim chance he can turn things around before the expected general election this time next year.
Greg Hands, the party's chairman, immediately made this argument in his immediate reaction to the election results. “Labour's vote hasn't increased, so I don't think it's a clear support for Labour,” he told Times Radio.
“There were a significant number of people who voted Conservative last time by staying at home. this time. And we obviously need to reflect on this and think about the consequences that this has.
“I have not heard one person come to the door and say that despite all the problems that are faced the people, Labor and Sir Keir Starmer were the solution to their problems. So I don't see any enthusiasm for Labour.”
Some fellow Tories also found a silver lining in the results. Michael Fabricant, the long-time MP for Lichfield, said the party could “take comfort from the fact that there was little evidence that Tory voters had switched to Labor in the way that Blair had.”
But he also did fired a warning shot at Sunak, saying the mass abstention of those who supported Boris Johnson last time showed the government “must do better” when it comes to addressing the concerns of core supporters.
Sir John Redwood, Conservative MP for Wokingham, said in response to the results that “many people want the government to stop the boats, improve the quality and efficiency of services and cut taxes to bring about some growth.”
Miriam Cates and Danny Kruger, who jointly lead the traditionalist group of New Conservative MPs, agreed there was “no enthusiasm for Starmer” but said the defeats “should be a wake-up call” for Sunak.
They added: “Our voters stayed at home – they did not switch to the Labor Party. We need to give Tory voters a genuine Conservative message to vote for again.”
Professor Sir John Curtis, a leading pollster, noted that Labour's 12.4% increase in the vote over the two by-elections accounted for less than half the drop in support suffered by the Conservatives.
He said it gave “some credence” to arguments that the defeats were due to dissatisfaction with the government rather than enthusiasm for Sir Keir, although he also warned the party could not gain any real benefit from them.
< Some senior members of the Conservative Party have pointed to the fact that the party lost both by-elections with fewer ballots cast for Reform Britain, arguing that a move to the right could bear fruit and strengthen support.
But others warn that optimistic talk of how to turn things around is futile, adding that management should not try to sugarcoat what was just the latest in a string of disastrous defeats.
Lord Frost, a leading Tory peer, said: “A strategy of denial is unlikely to work. If your voters don't want to come out and vote for you, you won't win the election. It's as simple as that.”
Some have gone further, such as Lord Cruddas, founder of the grassroots Conservative Democrats, arguing that MPs need to “wake up and smell the coffee” by ousting Sunak and are looking for a more popular replacement.
The Tory peer, a big supporter of Mr Johnson, said it would “boost members and save the party”, adding: “The ship is sinking and you are moving the party.” sun loungers. Time for a change before it's too late.”
It was a lone voice and no action is expected against the Prime Minister, not least because it would be almost impossible for the party to justify changing the country's leader again , without appealing to the electorate.
But even with this forced unity, the looming general election defeat, which could be galactic in scale, is fueling discord. As Sir Keir and his Startroopers gain strength, Mr Sunak has little time left to strike back.
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