The head of Sberbank saw the prerequisites for further strengthening of the ruble, but Kommersant FM’s interlocutors believe that this will not last long. The fundamental exchange rate of the Russian currency is 85-90 rubles. per dollar, said German Gref. And, he said, there are “a number of factors” that will support the rate. Analysts agree that the current level of 92 rubles. per dollar — not the limit of reduction. However, this is only true in the short term. The topic will be continued by Vladislav Viktorov.
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Photo: Evgeny Razumny, Kommersant
Photo: Evgeniy Razumny, Kommersant
The tax period, which has already come to an end, allowed replenishing the treasury at a record 1.64 since April 2022 trillion rubles oil and gas revenues. To do this, exporters had to get rid of large reserves of foreign currency, which supported the ruble.
And although this factor has already been played out, a trend towards strengthening the Russian currency has emerged, said the head of Sberbank German Gref. Current quotes more accurately reflect the real value of the ruble. Therefore, he did not rule out that the dollar would soon drop to the level of 85 rubles. But this is also only a temporary phenomenon, says Evgeniy Mironyuk, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments:
“After the end of this strong tax period, it is premature to say that many factors remain influencing the further strengthening of the ruble.
Now we see the exchange rate stabilizing, but it is still unlikely that the ruble will go beyond these boundaries and consolidate lower.
There is, of course, a risk of a decrease in foreign exchange earnings from exporters, primarily because the cost of oil is now falling. It has reached lows over the past two months.”
On November 7, January Brent futures dropped to $82 per barrel from $96 in September. Although the market expects a record hydrocarbon deficit of more than 3 million barrels per day. This gives reason to believe that the current fall in commodity prices is still a temporary phenomenon, experts say. However, force majeure cannot be ruled out, notes Digital Broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh:
“The Black Swan here will be associated precisely with the same oil price.
If we suddenly see that somewhere the economy is suddenly slowing down, demand will fall, and accordingly, the price of oil will begin to decline. Another factor is geopolitical risks. Naturally, this will be reflected in the ruble exchange rate.”
However, not only the head of Sberbank is optimistic, but also the Ministry of Finance. Last week, the head of the department, Anton Siluanov, said that the measures taken by the authorities on currency regulation had stabilized the situation. Indeed, just by Vladimir Putin’s decree on the sale of proceeds by exporters in mid-October, the dollar fell by 4 rubles, and since then the Russian currency has only improved its position.
Even the Central Bank admitted that volatility has indeed “decreased somewhat.” Another question is what conclusions the authorities will draw from this in 2024, says Valery Weisberg, director of the analytical department of the investment company Region:
“An important point is what decisions the government will make regarding the extension or modification of the rules for the sale of foreign currency earnings, that is, what information the government will have. There is still some uncertainty if we are talking about the prospects for the entire year 2024.
It is quite possible that exporters will be able, by selling more currency on the spot, for example, to hedge and receive the currency back in a quarter — that is, the market will adjust. This situation may prevent the ruble from strengthening further.”
In general, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors agree that by the end of the year the dollar may still fall to 90 rubles. and even a little lower. But they remind us that presidential elections will take place in Russia in March, after which, most likely, the exchange rate will attract less attention from the authorities.
Everything is clear with us — Kommersant FM Telegram channel.
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