The authorities do not see the risks of a sharp fall in the ruble. This was stated by the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton Siluanov. According to him, Russia has instruments of influence to ensure that the exchange rate is predictable and stable. This is, for example, President Vladimir Putin’s decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, which came into force last week. As a result, from October 16 to October 20, the ruble strengthened to almost 95 rubles. per dollar.
The Central Bank will hold its next meeting on October 27. If the regulator again significantly increases the key rate, the rate will go down even more actively, says Evgeniy Mironyuk, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments:
“The ruble has not lost its strengthening momentum. On Friday, a psychologically important level was broken – below 97 rubles. for a dollar. Most likely, exporters increased sales. This can be indirectly judged by the trading turnover on the foreign exchange market – it has increased.
And a number of other factors help the ruble. This is, of course, a fairly high oil price, a weakening of the US currency on the Forex market, as well as the expectation of a change in monetary policy, an increase in the rate to 14%. Let me remind you that the balance of payments has improved. The trend is likely to continue in the fourth quarter. A number of positive factors for the ruble will allow it to strengthen over the course of the week and perhaps even at the beginning of next week. The range is 93.8-96 rubles. per dollar.”
Almost all economists surveyed by Kommersant FM expect that on Friday, October 27, the Central Bank will raise the key rate by 100 basis points to 14%. Earlier, the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, announced a long period of high rates in the economy.
Despite this, economists surveyed by the Central Bank raised their forecast for Russian economic growth this year. They expect a 2.5% increase in GDP. But already in 2024, a tight monetary policy will make itself felt, says Renaissance Capital economist Sofia Donets:
“Both the implemented tightening of monetary policy and other factors will affect the results of 2024 more than the end of 2023. Therefore, the improvement in forecasts for the current year is, rather, a statement that the recovery in the Russian economy has occurred at a faster pace. So far the situation is at the upper limit of what could be expected.
Mortgage issues continue to be at record levels, including due to preferential programs. Therefore, the slowdown in lending and, accordingly, its role for the consumer will gradually affect it. This does not mean that the effect in the fourth quarter will be zero; we just expect the effect of these measures at the end of the year. But it will fully develop in 2024, which may become quite problematic in terms of finding a compromise between growth and inflation risks.”
Last week, Kommersant found out that the system currency control will be supplemented with new elements. According to the newspaper, the authorities are also preparing a document that will oblige some companies to constantly report on their foreign currency assets and liabilities abroad.
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