Manchester City lead, but Spurs, Liverpool and Arsenal are within two points
Premier the league bills itself as a competition in which any team can beat the other on any given day. This is a unique selling proposition, a USP, when it positions itself so successfully in the world.
The reality is that for this claim to be truly valid, there needs to be a title race. Not a two-horse race, but an open race in which two, three or even four teams have a real chance of winning.
Ahead of the final international window of the year, there is real hope that this time may be the most open struggle at the top for many seasons.
Previously only three times in the Premier League, since the top Reis were reformatted in 1992, they managed to do this after 12 games — almost a third of the campaign. After Manchester City's incredible 4-4 draw with Chelsea, just three points separate the top five.
In the 2001–02 season the situation was even tighter with just three points sweeping the top six, although then leaders Liverpool played just 11 times. In the 2007–08 season three points went to five teams, the same as in the 2020-21 season.
Yet only one of those campaigns, 2007-08, ultimately saw more than two teams compete for the title — Manchester City won the tournament United, just two points ahead of Chelsea and just four points ahead of Arsenal.
What's also interesting (and suggests it could be even closer this time) is that the top five scored more points this season than in any previous campaign: 133. The next highest was 2007–08. when they scored 127 points. , when three teams were out of order.
Is it because the top five are better? Probably no. The main factor may indeed be that the promoted teams are even weaker: the bottom three have just 15 points between them, while there are more mid-ranked teams than usual who will neither qualify for Europe nor be relegated relegation.
Of course, all of this has to be viewed through the lens that most observers expect City to eventually win the league. This will make them the first players to win four matches in a row in the 136-year history of English football.
If they do, it will call into question that competitive argument and begin to turn the Premier League into what we have seen across Europe — where Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga 11 seasons in a row, although barely last time, and where » PSG Saint-Germain have been crowned French champions in nine of their last 11 campaigns.
In fact, it could be argued that the competitive balance is not only better in Italy, where four different teams were crowned champions last season. four years — but even in Spain, where it was divided between Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.
However, competitiveness does not always mean better. City are the strongest team in Europe, they have won the Champions League and are favorites to do it again, and one has to be sympathetic to Arsenal last season and Liverpool before that to try to finish ahead of these high-quality giants.
But competitiveness must be good, and although City are in the lead, they are conceding more goals than usual at this stage of the campaign — the most since 2020, when they also conceded 12 goals (and won the league) — and are not without their shortcomings.< /p>
Manchester City could win four titles in a row if they are successful this season. Photo: AP/Dave Thompson
It is noteworthy that at this stage of the season City were then seventh, even if only three points behind the leaders, while they are now in first place without any consistent success. The best indication of how they can continue is that they finished 12 points ahead of second-placed Manchester United to regain the title in 2021.
And what will happen next? There is reason to hope that City will face a larger and more sustainable challenge, while the unknown for them is participation in the Club World Cup in Saudi Arabia next month — a competition they want to win — with a team that may , lacks depth.
That's because Arsenal, who pushed them close last season even if their head-to-heads weren't competitive, have undoubtedly improved, especially with the signing of Declan Rice. Jurgen Klopp has impressively regrouped Liverpool with a new midfielder. Injuries have suddenly hit Tottenham hard, which likely means the best they can hope for is a top-four finish, while no one can rule out Aston Villa pushing forward under Unai Emery, especially with their amazing domestic record.
Then there is the wildcard Chelsea, who may be in 10th place but have just scored four goals against City and even United, despite Erik ten Hag's claim that they are being able to challenge the top four requires much more proof than himself. that's providing that for now.
Newcastle United are a Champions League team and will want to remain that way while Brighton and West Ham complete perhaps the strongest top ten we've seen for many years.
< p>The fly in the ointment of this argument is that it is quite possible that only City and Arsenal will progress to the last 16 of the Champions League, although Eddie Howe has argued for efforts in the Premier League — such as those required for his Newcastle. The team that beat Arsenal contributed to their defeat away to Borussia Dortmund last week.So we have a strong top half of the league, a larger than usual bit and a smaller than usual , fight for relegation. This seems quite certain. And don't forget City are in pole position.
What we don't know (yet) is whether this will end in a wider title race. It would be surprising and exciting if this finally happened in the self-proclaimed most competitive league in the world.
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