Mahmoud Abbas turned 18 after being elected to a four-year term. Photo: REUTERS/MOHAMMAD HAMED
White House officials fear Mahmoud Abbas will not be able to lead the Gaza Strip after the war, even as Joe Biden continues to support a “renewed” Palestinian Authority (PA) taking control.
< p>This question dominated round-the-clock discussions in the White House. , where senior officials have spent weeks feverishly developing proposals for managing the Gaza Strip, sources familiar with the talks told The Sunday Telegraph.
America's private push for Israel to complete the offensive early in the new year has shed light on more than just desire Joe Biden to end the war, but also to his ideas for what comes next.
It also exposed a rift between Washington and Israel, with the two allies at odds over how they think the enclave should be run once fighting with Hamas ends.
Senior officials were ahead of the slumber as they work to developing plans that can be acceptable to all parties involved.
They stress that to succeed, any country must have the support of the Palestinians, Israel and their Arab neighbors – a high bar to overcome given the PA's rampant corruption and the growing popularity of Hamas in the West Bank.
There are many concerns about about the 88-year-old Abbas, the PA president who is 18 years old after being elected to a four-year term.
White House officials have not explicitly said that Abbas cannot remain in office. However, national security sources said that behind the scenes the US is facing the “biological reality” of the situation.
One former official said the administration will likely “increase our relationships and engagement” with potential replacements.
Anthony Blinken (left) said the United States is under no illusion that resolving the war and maintaining peace will not be easy. Photo: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS
Dr. Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said, “If your goal was stability and security, it's always a bad idea to bet on an 88-year-old chain smoker.”
< p>One of the alternative names, circulating in circulation is Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fatah leader in the Gaza Strip who has been living in exile in the United Arab Emirates for the past decade.
Mr Dahlan is powerful, well-connected and particularly influential in the UAE – a key regional political powerhouse – where he is a close adviser to Abu Dhabi's powerful ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.
He is said to have played an important behind-the-scenes role role in the Abraham Accords, the 2020 normalization treaty between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain.
This makes it more attractive to Israel, as does its role in the Oslo Peace Accord.
But the extent of his popularity among Gazans is less clear.
He has been accused of overseeing the torture of Hamas prisoners in the 1990s, but he denies this.
In a rare interview with the Economist in late October, Mr. Dahlan denied rumors that he was being tapped as the next leader.
Salam Fayyad, the former PA prime minister, reportedly has some Egyptian and American officials favoring a leader new government in the Gaza Strip.
Particular attention is paid to the “strong man”.
Dr. Rubin said Fayyad was “popular” in Gaza. in the West, “behind the scenes, I think the emphasis will be on the strongman… and that's where someone like Mohammed Dahlan comes in.”
He noted Mr. Dahlan's broad regional support and strong communications. with U.S. intelligence officials.
One former senior national security official declined to talk about potential replacements for Mr. Abbas, citing the sensitivity of the situation.
Smoke rises above Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip after an Israeli missile attack Photo: SAID KHATIB/AFP
They stressed that they did not want to assume that “the United States will choose this leader.”
They said that “what is probably happening behind the scenes is that American officials are asking very tough questions” about what will happen further.
Discussions in the US around the future of Gaza seem to recognize that one or more regional powers will act as a guarantor for the PA.
Two security sources said Jordan, Egypt and the UAE would be critical, while “important talks” were also being held with Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
One or more countries could be called upon to act as “trusted people to guarantee peace and take responsibility” for rebuilding Gaza, one source added.
In addition to managing Gaza, the Biden administration's post-war planning includes two more components: reconstruction and security.
The White House hopes to win support from the international community, especially wealthy Arab neighbors, to pay for rebuilding schools, hospitals and other critical infrastructure.
Security remains one of the most intractable problems.
Most Arab states have been reluctant to contribute troops, and Biden has ruled out deploying American soldiers on the ground.
Ayman Safad, Jordan's foreign minister, said: “What are the circumstances under which would any of us want to go and be seen as an enemy and come to restore order in Israel?”
International presenceHowever, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi proposed the creation of a demilitarized Palestinian state, guaranteed by an international presence, “be it NATO forces, United Nations forces, Arab or American forces.”
Mr. Sisi has reportedly been considered by the White House, with one senior official suggesting Hamas' status will be a major factor in the final decision.
The prospect of a UN peacekeeping presence is unlikely. will be supported by Israel, which has long felt the international body is rigged against it.
The gulf between Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was publicly exposed last week when the US president warned Mr Netanyahu said that he “can't say no” to the two-state solution.
“He must change this government,” Mr. Biden said in unusual and relaxed remarks.
After speaking with Mr. Biden on Tuesday, Mr. Netanyahu said there were “differences” between the allies. regarding what should happen to Gaza “the day after Hamas.”
Israeli politicians, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have avoided discussing options for the next day in Gaza, insisting that the whole country is focused on military operations.
But discussions about the future have entered public discourse, and several influential newspapers have published articles about the need to look to the future.
Yediot Ahronot, one of Israel's largest newspapers, said it supports the American plan to “hand over the keys” to Egypt. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in cooperation with the “renewed” PA.
Separately, the Israeli news site Walla quoted two US administration officials as saying that Israel had shown greater readiness than it currently has. in the past to discuss plans for Gaza's future.
Publicly, however, senior Israeli officials have expressed skepticism about PA involvement, while Washington has questioned Israel's proposal to create a “buffer zone” inside the Gaza Strip. border.
Anthony Blinken, America's top diplomat, put it differently.
“We have no illusions that this will be easy,” he said during a recent visit to Tel Aviv.
But, he said, “the alternative is more terrorist attacks , more violence, more innocent suffering – unacceptable.”
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