The ruble began to strengthen. The dollar exchange rate dropped below 90 at the moment, the euro cost less than 100 rubles. At the same time, oil futures began to fall in price. The strengthening occurs against the backdrop of announcements from the Central Bank. In particular, the regulator promised to sell as much currency in 2024 as the Ministry of Finance took from the National Welfare Fund, plus take into account the operations that it should have carried out earlier within the framework of the budget rule, but did not do due to volatility in the foreign exchange market. As a result, as the Central Bank announced, during the first half of the year it will sell foreign currency worth 12 billion rubles. in a day. But this is not the final amount; the excess income of the Ministry of Finance from high oil prices has yet to be taken into account.
At the request of Kommersant FM, the chief economist of Renaissance Capital for Russia and the CIS, Sofya Donets, calculated what the sales volume would ultimately be and how it would affect the ruble: “We have a usual budget rule, this means that if the price of Russian oil will be above $60, then the Central Bank will begin to calculate certain currency purchases.
According to our calculations, in January, for example, if the price of Urals oil remains around $65 per barrel – this is what was observed in December – the volume of transactions will be about 6 billion rub. in a day. The amendment, which will be in effect during the first half of the year, is something like 12 billion rubles. sales per day. Accordingly, we take six purchases, almost 12 sales and get sales in the region of 6 billion rubles.
Let me remind you that since the end of September we have had a very small volume of daily sales, just under 1 billion per day. Thus, such intensification will occur.
But we do not expect any supernatural trend reversals, but we need to look at the cumulative effect. The situation will also depend on the commodity market, and, of course, on geopolitics and related uncertainty.
Still, by and large, the strengthening that we are seeing is more or less expected and is associated with the end-of-the-month effect, the conversion of export proceeds to pay taxes.”
The authorities began to support the ruble in the summer, when the dollar became more expensive than 100 rubles. The first decision was to raise the key rate; as a result, over six months the figure was revised five times in a row, to 16%. The ruble did not react to the regulator’s meetings on the stock exchange. But the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, explained that over time these decisions will reduce the activity of importers, therefore, the ruble will strengthen.
Now the foreign exchange market seems balanced, noted Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy at Finam: “I think that in any case, we still see stabilization around the current levels, the plan that the Central Bank published. I would not exaggerate their importance for the foreign exchange market in the current situation.
The ruble will largely correlate, of course, with exports and imports. Against the backdrop of high interest rates, it is very likely that some imports will decline. But, on the other hand, ongoing fiscal stimulus is noticeable.
In this regard, from the point of view of the coming months, I still would not expect a significant weakening of the ruble. In my opinion, the corridor in the current situation will be 89-92.
At the same time, with a reduction in the Central Bank rate, we may see, let’s say, tectonic shifts. But there will not be a direct correlation here, that is, it is very likely that the regulator will lower the rate against the background of lowering rates of other central banks. That is, again, we can expect some stimulus for the economy.”
First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov previously said that the stabilization of the exchange rate at around 90 rubles. per dollar is acceptable for the Russian economy and means that it has managed to find a point of equilibrium between exports and imports.
However, it is premature to talk about stabilizing the domestic currency next year, says Mikhail Korolyuk, head of the trust management department of IFC Solid: “The situation will depend on two main points. These are primarily prices for raw materials, mainly oil, and the volume of Russian fuel sales to world markets.
The second point is that if inflation goes down, then the ruble will have opportunities to strengthen. In addition, one more point should be added – budget expenses.
That is, we understand that the state’s spending is now quite high, and whether it can continue to maintain this pace without emission, this is also such a “wild” card.
At the same time, since Our inflation is a priori higher than in the USA, then in the long term the ruble should weaken against the dollar. I will assume that in the near future the state will not give too much freedom in the current geopolitical situation. Until some acceptable outcome is reached, it will control the course, because the authorities need legitimacy. The ruble will not be allowed above the 100 mark. That is, there may even be some breakthroughs there, but then they will somehow try to look for opportunities to compact it back.”
In total, according to the estimate interlocutors of Kommersant FM, in 2024 the Central Bank can sell currencies worth 1 trillion rubles. However, this will not have a significant impact on the market: the Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the average dollar exchange rate in 2024 will remain at 90 rubles.
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